40 River Woods Dr W · St. Paul Park, MN 55071

$260,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,590 sqft · Townhouse public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2004 10,280 sqft lot $164/sqft · 28% below area Est $361k · 28% under $330/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

Key facts

• $330 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Above-grade finished area noted as 1,590; Living area listed as 1,590
• HOA & community: HOA: Property Care; Association fee $330 per month; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, sewer, snow removal, and water; Association-maintained and public-maintained roads

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated garage with opener; Asphalt driveway; 2-car garage (17 x 18)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Irregular lot shape; Accessible exterior with no external stairs
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt pitched roof (8 years old or newer); Finished above-grade living area totaling 1,590; Main level finished area 858
• Exterior features: Porch; Stone and vinyl exterior; Privacy fencing; Light tree coverage; Cul-de-sac location; Paved streets with sidewalks; Storm sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Informal dining area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on upper level; Second bedroom on upper level; Loft on upper level
• Bathrooms: Main floor half bath; Upper level full bath; Primary walk-thru bath
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Fireplace in family room
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; In-ground sprinkler; Walk-in closet; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($393/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Recommended offer: $256k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $260k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $256,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,386
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -28.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,859
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-31,261
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55071

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,834/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$330
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1241 Mullan Ct Saint Paul Park, MN	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,700	$1.45	16d	1	0.25mi
6432 Genevieve Trl Cottage Grove, MN	3.0	3.0	1966	$2,900	$1.48	43d	1	1.38mi
7535 Cloman Way E Unit A Inver Grove Heights, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $330 · $3,960/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $260,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $260,000 Contingent - Inspection 16 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   listed $260,000 Active 741-char remark
8. 2026-05-11
   historical $260,000 741-char remark
9. 2014-07-31
   soldstatus $135,000 Sold 261-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

10. 2014-07-31
    soldstatus $135,000

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

11. 2014-07-31
    soldstatus $135,000

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

12. 2014-07-01
    status Pending 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

13. 2014-06-24
    historical Contingent - Inspection 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

14. 2014-06-18
    listed $134,900 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

15. 2014-06-18
    listed $134,900

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

16. 2014-06-18
    listed $134,900

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Beautiful end unit townhome in sought after River Woods n'hood. This exceptional home features: open kitchen, large BR's, private patio with wooded views & easy walk to parks & Mississippi River! Upper loft could be easily converted to 3rd BR if needed.

17. 2009-11-07
    historical
18. 2009-09-01
    listed $144,900
19. 2004-12-07
    soldstatus $184,565
20. 2004-12-07
    listed $184,565

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,834 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,873 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,834
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,516
• − Management: −$2,516
• − HOA: −$3,960
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$3,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$912
• After-tax cash flow: $1,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul Park, MN
• Population (ZIP): 5,807

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.53%
• Current HPI: 243.5518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+40.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $260,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $260,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-31 Sold (MLS) $135,000 RASM
• 2014-07-31 Sold (MLS) $135,000 LSAR
• 2014-07-31 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-01 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-18 Listed $134,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-18 Listed $134,900 RASM
• 2014-06-18 Listed $134,900 LSAR
• 2009-11-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-01 Listed $144,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-07 Listed $184,565 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-07 Sold (MLS) $184,565 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,834 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.