1755 Holly Trl · Sour Lake, TX 77659

$257,710

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,831 sqft · Land

0.28 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the Camden floorplan at Holly Trails, this beautiful single story 2-car garage home in Sour Lake, Texas is just what you have been looking for. Inside this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom floorplan, you’ll find approximately 1,501 square foot home that makes the most of its space. The living area Is an open concept, where your kitchen, living, and dining areas blend seamlessly into a space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features shaker-style cabinetry and granite countertops, with granite backsplash. It also includes a breakfast bar and separate pantry for extra storage space. The standard covered patio is located off the family room for you to enjoy the view

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.9% in Sour Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#352 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin-Jefferson ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #135 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.41%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-24,999
• Equity at exit: $38,425

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-551
• Equity at exit: $22,282

Cash invested: $72,159 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77659

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,351
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $641/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,914

Max offer price $257,710

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,428
• Closing costs: $7,731
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Holly Trl Sour Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,250	$1.24	20d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-27
   historical
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $257,710
3. 2026-02-05
   price $250,580
4. 2026-01-24
   price $250,240
5. 2025-12-10
   price $265,560
6. 2025-11-05
   price $277,710
7. 2025-09-29
   price $267,650
8. 2025-07-30
   price $267,680
9. 2025-07-12
   price $267,510

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $641 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,716 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,075/yr (+$340/mo · 635.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,436
• − Property taxes: −$641
• − Insurance: −$1,289
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$7,497
• Taxable loss: −$1,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$284
• After-tax cash flow: $3,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin-Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822410
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,336
• Composite: 45.14/100
• National rank: #2682
• State rank: #135 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sour Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #7687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,847

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.72%
• Current HPI: 184.5266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Delisted — BBOR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $257,710 BBOR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $250,580 BBOR
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $250,240 BBOR
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $265,560 BBOR
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $277,710 BBOR
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $267,650 BBOR
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $267,680 BBOR
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $267,510 BBOR

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $641 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.