3016 Chelsea Ter · Baltimore, MD 21216

$149,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1925 Est $237k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this Charming end-of -group home located in the West Forest Park Community! This well-maintained residence offer comfortable living with a host of recent updates throughout. Step onto the front porch before entering a thoughtfully laid-out home featuring three bedrooms and one full bathroom. The main level boasts beautiful laminated hardwood flooring throughout, lending a warm and elegant feel to the living spaces, while the upper level finished with wall-to-wall carpeting across all three bedrooms. The kitchen has a double sink, refrigerator, and a gas stove - everything you need to make it your own. Laundry convenience is built right in, with a washing machine located in the l

Key facts

• Built 1925
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Ground rent (semi-annual payment)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas for heat and hot water
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Situated in city limits (Baltimore City)
• Construction: Brick construction; Other foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Unfinished basement with connecting stairway and rear entrance
• Exterior features: Rear fencing; Porch(es)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Hot water heated by natural gas
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Storm door
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (laundry in basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,681/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,257 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,006
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4110 Fairview Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,464 (+6%)	0mo	$150,000	$102	80
4222 Bonner Rd	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,380 (-0%)	9mo	$155,000	$112	77
4119 Fairview Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-3%)	3mo	$235,000	$175	73
4008 Bonner Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+13%)	5mo	$145,000	$93	66
3929 Duvall Ave	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,248 (-10%)	6mo	$270,000	$216	62
4145 Fairfax Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-9%)	5mo	$230,500	$183	62
3411 Liberty Heights Ave	0.50mi	3/3.5	1,360 (-2%)	5mo	$258,000	$190	61
3425 Liberty Heights Ave	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,320 (-5%)	6mo	$75,000	$57	56
4311 Chatham Rd	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,404 (+1%)	6mo	$240,000	$171	54
3849 W Forest Park Ave	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,584 (+14%)	7mo	$55,500	$35	53
3302 Gwynns Falls Pkwy	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,408 (+2%)	9mo	$206,700	$147	46
3409 Mondawmin Ave	0.64mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	12mo	$249,500	$178	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,752
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $37,816
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,143/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $262	+0% $220	+5% $177	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $153	+0% $220	+5% $286	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $258	base $220	+0.5pp $181	+1.0pp $142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4309 Norfolk Ave Unit 1st Floor Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	12d	1	0.37mi
3915 Liberty Heights Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	680	$1,345	$1.98	13d	5	0.41mi
3403 Carlisle Ave Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	12d	1	0.46mi
3904 Gwynns Falls Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,600	$1.47	44d	1	0.54mi
3508 Grantley Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	24d	1	0.59mi
2220 Lyndhurst Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	24d	1	0.61mi
4738 Wakefield Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	884	$1,200	$1.36	24d	1	0.71mi
2742 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,350	$1.32	44d	2	0.74mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,100	$1.40	15d	1	0.75mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	15d	1	0.75mi
3001 Carlisle Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,300	$1.27	44d	1	0.77mi
2738 N Longwood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,399	$1.37	44d	1	0.78mi
3514 Clifton Ave Unit 21 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,150	$1.24	44d	1	0.80mi
3514 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,199	$1.30	44d	1	0.80mi
3028 Hanlon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,711	$1.43	24d	1	0.82mi
3615 Mohawk Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,610	$1.61	44d	1	0.83mi
3617 Mohawk Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	0.83mi
3204 Sequoia Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,600	$1.45	44d	1	0.96mi
3709 Nortonia Rd #2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1289	$1,450	$1.12	18d	1	0.97mi
3017 Poplar Ter Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,349	$1.53	24d	1	0.98mi
3601 Howard Park Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	44d	1	1.09mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.11mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	24d	1	1.17mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	44d	1	1.21mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	24d	1	1.22mi
3727 Milford Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	1.22mi
3003 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	841	$935	$1.11	3d	3	1.22mi
4998 W Forest Park Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	15d	15	1.27mi
5006 Windsor Mill Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,899	$2.45	3d	18	1.29mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	18d	1	1.29mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	44d	1	1.31mi
3104 Tioga Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,050	$1.25	22d	1	1.32mi
3127 Baker St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	1.32mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	15d	1	1.36mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	24d	1	1.36mi
3935 Stokes Dr #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,400	$1.22	44d	1	1.44mi
3735 Manchester Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	5d	1	1.45mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	5d	1	1.47mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	45d	1	1.47mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,500 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,500 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,500 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    historical $149,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,143 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,143 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$3,143
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Coming Soon $149,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,143 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.