715 Hackberry Branch Ct · Magnolia, TX 77354

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2023 5,562 sqft lot Est $256k · 6% over $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION - Lennar's Cottage Collection "Chestnut 1.5" Elevation A in Magnolia Ridge! The lovely 1-story 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Chestnut floor plan features a welcoming front porch, a spacious family room, with an adjoining casual dining area. The spacious primary bedroom boasts an en suite bathroom, and a walk-in master closet. The Chestnut floor plan also features two separate bedrooms.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Modern appliances
• Covered patio

Tags

• MODERN APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• NATURE TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Magnolia Ridge homeowners association; Annual association fee of $575

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story home; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2023; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 14x12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x13); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 14x10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Utility room on the first floor (approx. 6x6); Living room on the first floor (approx. 20x14); Dining room on the first floor (approx. 14x9)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-565 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (37.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,032 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.98%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,780
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
540 Flower Reed Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-6%)	2mo	$255,990	$192	82
928 Gentle Moss Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+9%)	1mo	$239,000	$154	73
715 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-0%)	1mo	$240,990	$170	69
716 Autumn Cherry Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+3%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	68
715 Michelia St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+12%)	2mo	$285,990	$180	67
719 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-1%)	1mo	$245,990	$175	67
574 Bluebell Maiden Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+14%)	1mo	$269,990	$167	66
407 Rosebank Rnch	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,319 (-7%)	1mo	$237,000	$180	60
723 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-8%)	2mo	$239,990	$183	55
710 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	0mo	$237,990	$187	53
434 Southern Magnolia Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	1mo	$240,990	$189	50
706 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+13%)	0mo	$258,990	$161	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $105,940
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $331,163
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$569 /mo · $6,826/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,715

Max offer price $170,032

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-413	-5% $-489	+0% $-565	+5% $-642	+10% $-718
Rent	-10% $-723	-5% $-644	+0% $-565	+5% $-486	+10% $-407
Rate	-1.0pp $-429	-0.5pp $-497	base $-565	+0.5pp $-635	+1.0pp $-706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	0.02mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	6d	1	0.26mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	23d	1	0.37mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	25d	1	0.97mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	1.00mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	1.44mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	1.46mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $269,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $279,900 Active
17. 2025-01-03
    historical $1,595
18. 2024-12-05
    listed $1,595
19. 2023-03-17
    soldstatus
20. 2023-03-15
    soldstatus Sold 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION - Lennar's Cottage Collection "Chestnut 1.5" Elevation A in Magnolia Ridge! The lovely 1-story 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Chestnut floor plan features a welcoming front porch, a spacious family room, with an adjoining casual dining area. The spacious primary bedroom boasts an en suite bathroom, and a walk-in master closet. The Chestnut floor plan also features two separate bedrooms.

21. 2023-02-14
    status Pending 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION - Lennar's Cottage Collection "Chestnut 1.5" Elevation A in Magnolia Ridge! The lovely 1-story 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Chestnut floor plan features a welcoming front porch, a spacious family room, with an adjoining casual dining area. The spacious primary bedroom boasts an en suite bathroom, and a walk-in master closet. The Chestnut floor plan also features two separate bedrooms.

22. 2023-02-11
    price $225,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION - Lennar's Cottage Collection "Chestnut 1.5" Elevation A in Magnolia Ridge! The lovely 1-story 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Chestnut floor plan features a welcoming front porch, a spacious family room, with an adjoining casual dining area. The spacious primary bedroom boasts an en suite bathroom, and a walk-in master closet. The Chestnut floor plan also features two separate bedrooms.

23. 2023-01-30
    price $230,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION - Lennar's Cottage Collection "Chestnut 1.5" Elevation A in Magnolia Ridge! The lovely 1-story 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Chestnut floor plan features a welcoming front porch, a spacious family room, with an adjoining casual dining area. The spacious primary bedroom boasts an en suite bathroom, and a walk-in master closet. The Chestnut floor plan also features two separate bedrooms.

24. 2023-01-10
    listed $235,000 Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION - Lennar's Cottage Collection "Chestnut 1.5" Elevation A in Magnolia Ridge! The lovely 1-story 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Chestnut floor plan features a welcoming front porch, a spacious family room, with an adjoining casual dining area. The spacious primary bedroom boasts an en suite bathroom, and a walk-in master closet. The Chestnut floor plan also features two separate bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,826 · $569/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,826 · $569/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$6,826
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$11,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Rental Removed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed for Rent $1,595 HARMLS
• 2023-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-02-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-11 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-30 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-10 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,826 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.