4305 Park Dr · Lake Timberline, MO 63020

$94,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Other public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1960 0.51 ac lot $75/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Bargain hunters! What a great deal on this waterfront home. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, covered porch, view of Sunrise Lake and so much more. Hurry this will not last long at this price.

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Sunrise Lake HOA; HOA provides association management, boating access, common ground and lake amenities; Annual association fee ($900) covering grounds maintenance, parking/roads maintenance, common area maintenance, sewer and water

Exterior

• Utilities: Community water; Private sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Open lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sunrise R-IX (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #141 of 535 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $91,665 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.79%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-4,326
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $10,494
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63020

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $992/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $199	+0% $172	+5% $145	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $129	+0% $172	+5% $215	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $196	base $172	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,500 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,500 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,500 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,500 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,500 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,500 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,500 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,500 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,500 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,500 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,500 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $94,500 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $99,900 Active
17. 2026-05-02
    historical $99,900
18. 2026-03-06
    price $125,000
19. 2026-02-07
    price $148,000
20. 2026-01-12
    listed $175,000 Active
21. 2023-07-17
    soldstatus
22. 2023-07-17
    soldstatus
23. 2022-02-20
    price $599
24. 2016-02-26
    soldstatus Closed 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Attention Bargain hunters! What a great deal on this waterfront home. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, covered porch, view of Sunrise Lake and so much more. Hurry this will not last long at this price.

25. 2016-01-29
    historical 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Attention Bargain hunters! What a great deal on this waterfront home. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, covered porch, view of Sunrise Lake and so much more. Hurry this will not last long at this price.

26. 2016-01-08
    status Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Attention Bargain hunters! What a great deal on this waterfront home. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, covered porch, view of Sunrise Lake and so much more. Hurry this will not last long at this price.

27. 2016-01-03
    historical 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Attention Bargain hunters! What a great deal on this waterfront home. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, covered porch, view of Sunrise Lake and so much more. Hurry this will not last long at this price.

28. 2015-12-11
    price $24,950 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Attention Bargain hunters! What a great deal on this waterfront home. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, covered porch, view of Sunrise Lake and so much more. Hurry this will not last long at this price.

29. 2015-12-10
    listed $29,900 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Attention Bargain hunters! What a great deal on this waterfront home. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, covered porch, view of Sunrise Lake and so much more. Hurry this will not last long at this price.

30. 2015-07-13
    price $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$992
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $623
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$150
• After-tax cash flow: $1,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sunrise R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2929820
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,854
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6711
• State rank: #141 of 535 in MO

Livability — Lake Timberline

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,357

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.90%
• Current HPI: 217.2807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+234.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $148,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $175,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-20 Price Changed $599 RENT.
• 2016-02-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-29 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-03 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-11 Price Changed $24,950 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-10 Listed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-13 Price Changed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $992 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.