44427 Commanchee Rd · Callahan, FL 32011

$105,700

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1986 0.96 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of peaceful country living in Callahan, FL. Located on approximately 1 acre and only about 30 minutes from Jacksonville, this property offers a quiet setting with plenty of open space and privacy. The existing home requires renovation, presenting an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to enjoy a more relaxed rural atmosphere with convenient access to nearby amenities.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Open space
• Convenient access

Tags

• OPEN SPACE
• QUIET SETTING
• PRIVACY
• RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY
• RURAL ATMOSPHERE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-street parking available
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Used as a manufactured single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on the property; Road access includes dirt and paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning units; No central heating listed
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $106k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.3% in Callahan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#408 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Callahan Elementary School (658 students, 51% FRL); Callahan Middle School (math 79% / reading 65%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 705 students, 46% FRL); West Nassau County High School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 974 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($731 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,114 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.98%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $74,814
• Equity at exit: $95,223

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.99×
• Total profit: $206,761
• Equity at exit: $205,352

Cash invested: $29,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32011

• Home prices YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$554
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,286/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $105,700

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,425
• Closing costs: $3,171
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $105,700 Active
2. 2025-08-07
   historical
3. 2025-08-06
   price $99,000
4. 2025-07-24
   listed $109,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,286
• − Insurance: −$528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$3,075
• Taxable income: $1,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$395
• After-tax cash flow: $2,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callahan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #7208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,716

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 56.56%
• Current HPI: 351.8301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $105,700 realMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $99,000 realMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $109,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,286 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.