5106 Lower Elm St · South Fulton, GA 30349

$239,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,737 sqft · Townhouse public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2020 1,698 sqft lot $138/sqft · 6% below area Est $275k · 13% under $74/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom townhouse located in a peaceful, quiet neighborhood. This home offers an ideal layout for modern living, featuring spacious bedrooms and a functional open flow. Residents of this community enjoy access to a neighborhood pool, perfect for relaxing on warm Georgia afternoons. Situated in a prime Atlanta location, you'll enjoy the serenity of a tucked-away community while remaining just minutes from the city's best shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares.

Key facts

• Neighborhood pool
• $74 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL
• PRIME ATLANTA LOCATION
• TUCKED-AWAY COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee covers grounds maintenance and pool; Community includes a pool; Community size: 267 units

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (faces front); One garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 110-volt electric; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Two levels; Fee simple ownership; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Private yard; Private entrance; Gas grill; Enclosed rear porch; Rain gutters; Asphalt city street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Kitchen listed with other/custom features
• Bedrooms: Three upper-level bedrooms; Oversized master bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Master bath with double vanity, separate tub and shower, and soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Two-story entrance foyer; 9-foot ceilings on lower level; No shared/common walls
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-417/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in South Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Creek Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 797 students, 56% FRL); Renaissance Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #301 of 470 statewide, top 66%, 1,166 students, 71% FRL); Langston Hughes High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,964 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 41% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-29 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 651 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,473 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,691
• List price: $239,500
• Delta: -12.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5063 Lower Elm St	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,728 (-0%)	14mo	$253,000	$146	85
5118 Lower Elm St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,880 (+8%)	2mo	$245,000	$130	83
5079 Lower Elm St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,880 (+8%)	4mo	$226,000	$120	82
4992 Lower Elm St	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,679 (-3%)	11mo	$247,000	$147	73
5019 Lower Elm St	0.15mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,476 (-15%)	1mo	$125,320	$85	63
1008 Belfry Ter	0.28mi	3/3.5	1,685 (-3%)	19mo	$300,000	$178	62
992 Belfry Ter	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,936 (+12%)	11mo	$295,000	$152	59
4957 Lower Elm St	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,520 (-12%)	7mo	$245,000	$161	58
960 Belfry Ter	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,539 (-11%)	20mo	$297,000	$193	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $123,965
• Equity at exit: $215,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $358,872
• Equity at exit: $465,296

Cash invested: $67,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30349

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 651
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,592/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,189

Max offer price $234,466

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,875
• Closing costs: $7,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4660 Derrick Rd Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,724	$2.65	1d	32	0.78mi
4407 Sparrow Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.0	2055	$2,335	$1.14	1d	10	0.92mi
4095 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	2196	$2,023	$0.92	43d	1	1.00mi
4108 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,400	$1.34	43d	1	1.02mi
4407 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	43d	1	1.06mi
4420 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1622	$2,130	$1.31	43d	1	1.09mi
4064 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1874	$1,895	$1.01	24d	1	1.10mi
4223 Reeshemah St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1843	$1,995	$1.08	5d	1	1.11mi
4062 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.0	1874	$1,910	$1.02	24d	1	1.11mi
4056 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1174	$1,895	$1.61	24d	1	1.12mi
5055 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1692	$2,153	$1.27	1d	76	1.14mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	4.0	4.0	1885	$2,595	$1.38	22d	1	1.19mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,501	$1.67	24d	1	1.19mi
5505 Southwood Rd Fairburn, GA	4.0	4.0	1885	$2,595	$1.38	43d	1	1.19mi
4551 Derby Loop Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.0	2152	$2,099	$0.98	43d	1	1.30mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Union City, GA	4.0	3.0	1821	$3,468	$1.90	44d	1	1.41mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Unit 105 Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1413	$2,455	$1.74	43d	1	1.41mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,545	$1.80	15d	1	1.41mi
4365 Stonewall Tell Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,823	$1.25	43d	1	1.43mi
4122 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	3.0	3.0	1394	$1,849	$1.33	24d	1	1.43mi
864 Bentley Dr Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	1989	$2,409	$1.21	24d	1	1.44mi
4509 Ravenwood Pl Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1394	$1,970	$1.41	12d	1	1.46mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	24d	1	1.50mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	15d	1	1.50mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	1d	1	1.50mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,625	$1.17	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $239,500 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,500 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   status $239,500 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,500 Active 26 DOM

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom townhouse located in a peaceful, quiet neighborhood. This home offers an ideal layout for modern living, featuring spacious bedrooms and a functional open flow. Residents of this community enjoy access to a neighborhood pool, perfect for relaxing on warm Georgia afternoons. Situated in a prime Atlanta location, you'll enjoy the serenity of a tucked-away community while remaining just minutes from the city's best shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares.

5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,500 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,500 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,500 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,500 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,500 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,500 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-14
    listed $249,500 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom townhouse located in a peaceful, quiet neighborhood. This home offers an ideal layout for modern living, featuring spacious bedrooms and a functional open flow. Residents of this community enjoy access to a neighborhood pool, perfect for relaxing on warm Georgia afternoons. Situated in a prime Atlanta location, you'll enjoy the serenity of a tucked-away community while remaining just minutes from the city's best shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares.

12. 2026-05-14
    listed $249,500 New 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom townhouse located in a peaceful, quiet neighborhood. This home offers an ideal layout for modern living, featuring spacious bedrooms and a functional open flow. Residents of this community enjoy access to a neighborhood pool, perfect for relaxing on warm Georgia afternoons. Situated in a prime Atlanta location, you'll enjoy the serenity of a tucked-away community while remaining just minutes from the city's best shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,416
• − Property taxes: −$3,592
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$6,967
• Taxable loss: −$4,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — South Fulton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Fulton, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 127,674
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 79,872
• Household income: $67,023
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4258.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% White 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.01%
• Current HPI: 407.99
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-06-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-06-09 Contingent — FMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $239,500 FMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $239,500 GAMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $249,500 GAMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $249,500 FMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.