9248 Kincaid Ct · Sanibel, FL 33957

$799,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1984 10,280 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED BY IAN! This fabulous Olde Florida style home was updated in 2019, expanded and renovated in 2022. With a new metal standing seam roof, hardie board siding, and impact windows and doors, this home stood up beautifully to the storm. There was no interior damage to the living level and only minor soffit damage to the exterior which is currently being addressed by the seller. The coastal cottage architecture is captivating. It is a perfect island home with high quality, thoughtful finishes, abundant windows, wood flooring, and a spectacular primary suite. The welcoming front porch leads to a window-lined front room and a comfortable living area that flows perfectly to the lovely kitchen. Quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen anchor this great-room atmosphere which leads to the screened outdoor living room. The lower level is completely enclosed and includes a one car garage and a huge storage area and workroom. The fenced backyard features open and covered living spaces and an outdoor shower. Located under a mile from the Sanibel Recreation Center and the JN Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept design
• Hardie board siding

Tags

• STANDING SEAM METAL ROOF
• HARDIE BOARD SIDING
• IMPACT RATED WINDOWS
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered garage space
• Security: Security/high impact doors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: 2-story home; Entry level: 2; Faces west; Exposures: east; Raised foundation with pillars/posts/piers; Resale property
• Construction: Built with wood frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence; Security/high impact doors; Balcony; Lanai; Porch (screened)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Refrigerator with ice maker
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Dual sinks; Living/dining room; Separate shower (shower only); Walk-in closet(s); Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($52k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $799k).
• Recommended offer: $751k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($751k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $751,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.42%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $145,123
• Equity at exit: $119,133

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $479,856
• Equity at exit: $69,083

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,622/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $4,312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,542

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,764	-5% $4,538	+0% $4,312	+5% $4,086	+10% $3,860
Rent	-10% $3,364	-5% $3,838	+0% $4,312	+5% $4,786	+10% $5,260
Rate	-1.0pp $4,714	-0.5pp $4,515	base $4,312	+0.5pp $4,105	+1.0pp $3,894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Durion Ct Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$12,000	$9.19	24d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $799,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $799,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $799,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $799,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $799,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-04-21
    price $799,000
13. 2026-03-31
    listed $899,000 Active
14. 2023-07-12
    soldstatus $865,000
15. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $865,000 Closed 1180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

    VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED BY IAN! This fabulous Olde Florida style home was updated in 2019, expanded and renovated in 2022. With a new metal standing seam roof, hardie board siding, and impact windows and doors, this home stood up beautifully to the storm. There was no interior damage to the living level and only minor soffit damage to the exterior which is currently being addressed by the seller. The coastal cottage architecture is captivating. It is a perfect island home with high quality, thoughtful finishes, abundant windows, wood flooring, and a spectacular primary suite. The welcoming front porch leads to a window-lined front room and a comfortable living area that flows perfectly to the lovely kitchen. Quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen anchor this great-room atmosphere which leads to the screened outdoor living room. The lower level is completely enclosed and includes a one car garage and a huge storage area and workroom. The fenced backyard features open and covered living spaces and an outdoor shower. Located under a mile from the Sanibel Recreation Center and the JN Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge.

16. 2023-05-05
    status Pending 1180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

    VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED BY IAN! This fabulous Olde Florida style home was updated in 2019, expanded and renovated in 2022. With a new metal standing seam roof, hardie board siding, and impact windows and doors, this home stood up beautifully to the storm. There was no interior damage to the living level and only minor soffit damage to the exterior which is currently being addressed by the seller. The coastal cottage architecture is captivating. It is a perfect island home with high quality, thoughtful finishes, abundant windows, wood flooring, and a spectacular primary suite. The welcoming front porch leads to a window-lined front room and a comfortable living area that flows perfectly to the lovely kitchen. Quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen anchor this great-room atmosphere which leads to the screened outdoor living room. The lower level is completely enclosed and includes a one car garage and a huge storage area and workroom. The fenced backyard features open and covered living spaces and an outdoor shower. Located under a mile from the Sanibel Recreation Center and the JN Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge.

17. 2023-03-13
    price $899,000 1180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

    VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED BY IAN! This fabulous Olde Florida style home was updated in 2019, expanded and renovated in 2022. With a new metal standing seam roof, hardie board siding, and impact windows and doors, this home stood up beautifully to the storm. There was no interior damage to the living level and only minor soffit damage to the exterior which is currently being addressed by the seller. The coastal cottage architecture is captivating. It is a perfect island home with high quality, thoughtful finishes, abundant windows, wood flooring, and a spectacular primary suite. The welcoming front porch leads to a window-lined front room and a comfortable living area that flows perfectly to the lovely kitchen. Quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen anchor this great-room atmosphere which leads to the screened outdoor living room. The lower level is completely enclosed and includes a one car garage and a huge storage area and workroom. The fenced backyard features open and covered living spaces and an outdoor shower. Located under a mile from the Sanibel Recreation Center and the JN Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge.

18. 2023-02-07
    price $999,000 1180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

    VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED BY IAN! This fabulous Olde Florida style home was updated in 2019, expanded and renovated in 2022. With a new metal standing seam roof, hardie board siding, and impact windows and doors, this home stood up beautifully to the storm. There was no interior damage to the living level and only minor soffit damage to the exterior which is currently being addressed by the seller. The coastal cottage architecture is captivating. It is a perfect island home with high quality, thoughtful finishes, abundant windows, wood flooring, and a spectacular primary suite. The welcoming front porch leads to a window-lined front room and a comfortable living area that flows perfectly to the lovely kitchen. Quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen anchor this great-room atmosphere which leads to the screened outdoor living room. The lower level is completely enclosed and includes a one car garage and a huge storage area and workroom. The fenced backyard features open and covered living spaces and an outdoor shower. Located under a mile from the Sanibel Recreation Center and the JN Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge.

19. 2023-01-20
    listed $1,025,000 Active 1180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

    VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED BY IAN! This fabulous Olde Florida style home was updated in 2019, expanded and renovated in 2022. With a new metal standing seam roof, hardie board siding, and impact windows and doors, this home stood up beautifully to the storm. There was no interior damage to the living level and only minor soffit damage to the exterior which is currently being addressed by the seller. The coastal cottage architecture is captivating. It is a perfect island home with high quality, thoughtful finishes, abundant windows, wood flooring, and a spectacular primary suite. The welcoming front porch leads to a window-lined front room and a comfortable living area that flows perfectly to the lovely kitchen. Quartz countertops, shaker-style cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen anchor this great-room atmosphere which leads to the screened outdoor living room. The lower level is completely enclosed and includes a one car garage and a huge storage area and workroom. The fenced backyard features open and covered living spaces and an outdoor shower. Located under a mile from the Sanibel Recreation Center and the JN Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge.

20. 2019-04-25
    soldstatus $338,800
21. 2019-04-22
    soldstatus $350,000 Sold 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Perfect Sanibel starter/investment home! This updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath raised home is move-in ready. Close to The Sanibel School and Recreation Center as well as Ding Darling Refuse. New kitchen, all new flooring, updated air conditioner, two car garage perfect for workshop AND impact glass.

22. 2019-03-14
    status Pending With Contingencies 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Perfect Sanibel starter/investment home! This updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath raised home is move-in ready. Close to The Sanibel School and Recreation Center as well as Ding Darling Refuse. New kitchen, all new flooring, updated air conditioner, two car garage perfect for workshop AND impact glass.

23. 2018-11-23
    price $399,000 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Perfect Sanibel starter/investment home! This updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath raised home is move-in ready. Close to The Sanibel School and Recreation Center as well as Ding Darling Refuse. New kitchen, all new flooring, updated air conditioner, two car garage perfect for workshop AND impact glass.

24. 2018-06-26
    price $429,000 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Perfect Sanibel starter/investment home! This updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath raised home is move-in ready. Close to The Sanibel School and Recreation Center as well as Ding Darling Refuse. New kitchen, all new flooring, updated air conditioner, two car garage perfect for workshop AND impact glass.

25. 2018-05-01
    price $449,000 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Perfect Sanibel starter/investment home! This updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath raised home is move-in ready. Close to The Sanibel School and Recreation Center as well as Ding Darling Refuse. New kitchen, all new flooring, updated air conditioner, two car garage perfect for workshop AND impact glass.

26. 2018-01-22
    listed $475,000 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Perfect Sanibel starter/investment home! This updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath raised home is move-in ready. Close to The Sanibel School and Recreation Center as well as Ding Darling Refuse. New kitchen, all new flooring, updated air conditioner, two car garage perfect for workshop AND impact glass.

27. 1978-10-01
    soldstatus $10,800
28. 1974-01-01
    soldstatus $8,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,622 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,632 · $553/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,009/yr (+$334/mo · 152.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$2,622
• − Insurance: −$9,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable income: $41,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,894
• After-tax cash flow: $41,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+9411.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $799,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $899,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $865,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $865,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-05-05 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2023-03-13 Price Changed $899,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-02-07 Price Changed $999,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $1,025,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $338,800 Public Records
• 2019-04-22 Sold (MLS) $350,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-03-14 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2018-11-23 Price Changed $399,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-06-26 Price Changed $429,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-05-01 Price Changed $449,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-01-22 Listed $475,000 FORTMLS
• 1978-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,800 Public Records
• 1974-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,622 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.