208 Beaver Rd · Kirbyville, MO 65616

$55,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 764 sqft · Manufactured · 146 Days on market

Built 1979 Poor condition 5,227 sqft lot $72/sqft · 53% above area $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable opportunity in the Lake Taneycomo Woods subdivision! This property features an older single-wide mobile home situated on two lots in a quiet, natural setting. The home is being sold as-is and offers potential for renovation or replacement.

Key facts

• Two lots
• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• QUIET NATURAL SETTING
• POTENTIAL FOR RENOVATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.4% in Kirbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#494 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1048 active listings in the ZIP; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.57%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $36,000
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: 52.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $26,605
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $68,630
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1048
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $494

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    price $55,000 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Affordable opportunity in the Lake Taneycomo Woods subdivision! This property features an older single-wide mobile home situated on two lots in a quiet, natural setting. The home is being sold as-is and offers potential for renovation or replacement.

17. 2026-01-24
    listed $60,000 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Affordable opportunity in the Lake Taneycomo Woods subdivision! This property features an older single-wide mobile home situated on two lots in a quiet, natural setting. The home is being sold as-is and offers potential for renovation or replacement.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,491
• After-tax cash flow: $5,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This mobile home is in poor condition and requires extensive repairs and updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major roof — Significant damage and wear
• Major exterior — Significant damage and wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters
• Both exterior repairs — Repairing the exterior will improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior will make the home more attractive and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both exterior repairs — Repairing the exterior will improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior will make the home more attractive and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #19167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $55,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-24 Listed $60,000 SOMO