791 Hudson Pkwy · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$145,986

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

$112/sqft · 9% below area Est $160k · 9% under $425/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEST BUY! NEW CARPET THROUGHOUT HOUSE, NEW FLOOR IN KITCHEN, NEW STOVE, NEW REFRIGERATOR, NEW COMPRESSOR FOR C/A, YES, CENTRAL AIR, DOUBLE WINDOWS, HURRY! BONUS $1,000 1

Key facts

• Active clubhouse
• Private wooded yard
• Covered patio

Tags

• CAMBRIDGE MODEL CO-OP
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE WOODED YARD
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1300
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $425 monthly; HOA covers trash, common area, lawn maintenance, snow removal; Community amenities include clubhouse, community room and common area access; Association name: CV3

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownership; Model: Cambridge
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with baseboard; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Blinds/Shades; Ceiling fan(s); Light fixtures; Awnings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $146k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,606 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.59%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,246
• List price: $145,986
• Delta: -8.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Hudson Pkwy	0.25mi	2/1.5	1,318 (+1%)	0mo	$140,000	$106	86
7 B Birchwood Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+7%)	2mo	$200,000	$144	74
5 Bayberry Ln Unit A	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+7%)	2mo	$220,000	$158	70
9 Greenleaf St	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,193 (-8%)	4mo	$235,000	$197	69
12 Birchwood Dr Unit A	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-9%)	4mo	$250,000	$211	66
2 Cottage Ct Unit A	0.35mi	2/1.5	1,184 (-9%)	7mo	$239,000	$202	63
3B Drake St #53	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+7%)	3mo	$210,000	$151	60
1 Adams Ct	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+4%)	6mo	$178,000	$132	59
196 Constitution Blvd	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,398 (+8%)	2mo	$168,000	$120	58
58 Milford Ave	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,219 (-6%)	5mo	$235,000	$193	49
9 Potomac Ln Unit A	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,113 (-14%)	2mo	$112,999	$102	45
55 Franklin Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,492 (+15%)	7mo	$167,000	$112	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,730
• Equity at exit: $21,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $21,068
• Equity at exit: $12,622

Cash invested: $40,876 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$182 /mo · $2,190/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$425
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $145,986

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,496
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9A Juniper Ln Unit 50 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,950	$1.93	43d	1	0.49mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	16d	1	0.54mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.62mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	24d	1	0.79mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.81mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	20d	1	0.81mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	1d	1	0.95mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	43d	1	0.95mi
— Lakehurst, NJ	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	1d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $425 · $5,100/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,986 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,986 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,986 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,986 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,986 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,986 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,986 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,986 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,986 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,986 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,986 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,986 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,986 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $145,986 Active 491-char remark
15. 2025-12-02
    listed $158,000 Active
16. 2001-06-15
    soldstatus $50,000

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    BEST BUY! NEW CARPET THROUGHOUT HOUSE, NEW FLOOR IN KITCHEN, NEW STOVE, NEW REFRIGERATOR, NEW COMPRESSOR FOR C/A, YES, CENTRAL AIR, DOUBLE WINDOWS, HURRY! BONUS $1,000 1

17. 2001-06-15
    soldstatus $50,000

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    BEST BUY! NEW CARPET THROUGHOUT HOUSE, NEW FLOOR IN KITCHEN, NEW STOVE, NEW REFRIGERATOR, NEW COMPRESSOR FOR C/A, YES, CENTRAL AIR, DOUBLE WINDOWS, HURRY! BONUS $1,000 1

18. 2001-04-23
    historical
19. 2001-03-03
    listed $52,000

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    BEST BUY! NEW CARPET THROUGHOUT HOUSE, NEW FLOOR IN KITCHEN, NEW STOVE, NEW REFRIGERATOR, NEW COMPRESSOR FOR C/A, YES, CENTRAL AIR, DOUBLE WINDOWS, HURRY! BONUS $1,000 1

20. 2001-03-03
    listed $52,000

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    BEST BUY! NEW CARPET THROUGHOUT HOUSE, NEW FLOOR IN KITCHEN, NEW STOVE, NEW REFRIGERATOR, NEW COMPRESSOR FOR C/A, YES, CENTRAL AIR, DOUBLE WINDOWS, HURRY! BONUS $1,000 1

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,177
• − Property taxes: −$2,190
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − HOA: −$5,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable income: $1,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$380
• After-tax cash flow: $3,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+180.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $145,986 MOMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $158,000 MOMLS
• 2001-06-15 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MOMLS
• 2001-06-15 Sold (MLS) $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-04-23 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2001-03-03 Listed $52,000 MOMLS
• 2001-03-03 Listed $52,000 BRIGHT MLS