Littleton Plan · Huffman, TX 77336

$240,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily · 320 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Watermill Collection is a new series of single-family homes for sale at the Sila masterplan in Huffman, TX. Nestled in a wooded landscape, the community offers access to onsite amenities, including a swimming pool, parks, walking trails and a pickleball court. Land Houston Wilderness Park offers opportunities to camp and enjoy the outdoors, and residents will enjoy simple commutes and travel with proximity to I-69. Plus, eligible students will attend desirable Huffman ISD schools.

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Swimming pool
• Huffman isd schools

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• WALKING TRAILS
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• HUFFMAN ISD SCHOOLS

🏗️ New construction. The $240,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,724.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $241k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-499 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 951 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,939 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.11%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,724
• List price: $240,990
• Delta: -19.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31223 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+4%)	0mo	$206,991	$102	80
31213 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+4%)	1mo	$201,991	$99	78
710 Rosa Bianca Way	0.34mi	4/3.0	1,868 (-5%)	0mo	$235,990	$126	74
712 Rosa Bianca Way	0.34mi	4/3.0	1,875 (-5%)	2mo	$259,990	$139	73
726 Pennabilli Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	0mo	$198,990	$113	70
31513 Olivella Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-13%)	0mo	$186,990	$109	67
707 Pennabilli Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	0mo	$206,990	$118	66
713 Pennabilli Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	2mo	$195,990	$111	66
714 Pennabilli Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-13%)	0mo	$191,990	$112	65
6B Davidson Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,108 (+7%)	2mo	$379,000	$180	64
31521 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-13%)	2mo	$190,990	$111	62
706 Rosa Bianca Way	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,233 (+14%)	1mo	$262,990	$118	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-80,464
• Equity at exit: $44,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-110,844
• Equity at exit: $26,001

Cash invested: $84,203 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 82 active · 75 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $235,990 ($124/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 951
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,511/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,631

Max offer price $228,559

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-291	-5% $-395	+0% $-499	+5% $-603	+10% $-707
Rent	-10% $-657	-5% $-578	+0% $-499	+5% $-420	+10% $-341
Rate	-1.0pp $-347	-0.5pp $-422	base $-499	+0.5pp $-577	+1.0pp $-656

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,181
• Closing costs: $9,022
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 Capracotta Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,800	$1.09	53d	1	0.20mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,599	$1.09	114d	1	0.28mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,599	$1.18	33d	1	0.30mi
31208 Piccolo Fiore Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,695	$1.16	56d	1	0.30mi
28174 Farm to Market 1485 New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $240,990 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $240,990 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $240,990 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $240,990 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $240,990 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $240,990 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $240,990 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $240,990 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $240,990 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $240,990 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $240,990 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $240,990 Active 308 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $240,990 Active 307 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $240,990 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $240,990 Active 305 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $240,990 Active 304 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $240,990 Active 303 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $240,990 Active 302 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $240,990 Active 301 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $240,990 Active 300 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $240,990 Active 299 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $240,990 Active 298 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $240,990 Active 297 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $240,990 Active 296 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $240,990 Active 295 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $240,990 Active 294 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $240,990 Active 293 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $240,990 Active 292 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $240,990 Active 291 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $240,990 Active 290 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $240,990 Active 289 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $240,990 Active 288 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $240,990 Active 287 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $240,990 Active 286 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $240,990 Active 285 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $240,990 Active 284 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $240,990 Active 283 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $240,990 Active 282 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $240,990 Active 281 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $240,990 Active 280 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $240,990 Active 279 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $240,990 Active 278 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $240,990 Active 277 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $240,990 Active 276 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $240,990 Active 275 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $240,990 Active 274 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $240,990 Active 273 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $240,990 Active 272 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $240,990 Active 271 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $240,990 Active 270 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,845
• − Property taxes: −$4,511
• − Insurance: −$1,504
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$8,748
• Taxable loss: −$11,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,749
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Littleton Plan, Roman Forest TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on enhancing curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huffman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $285,990 Zillow