1756 Aspen Dr · Valley, MI 49010

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2025 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

new affordable housing surrounded by state land

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Ranch-style residence; New construction (2025)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built in 2025; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Recreational lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen areas (two listed)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms; Screens; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-154/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Allegan Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #338 of 540 in MI (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Allegan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $200k implies a 1601% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,657 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,141
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,634
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49010

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,833

Max offer price $198,043

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 47-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$839
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegan Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602220
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,602
• Composite: 27.27/100
• National rank: #7008
• State rank: #338 of 540 in MI

Livability — Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,394

Population outlook (Allegan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,251 people
• By 2030: 122,204 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 123,979 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 122,340 · +1.7%
• By 2075: 116,088 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 98,461 · -18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 10% Romanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.7pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+28.8 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.08%
• Current HPI: 260.4976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1601.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-16 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $199,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $11,750 Public Records