1458 N Sr 53 · Madison, FL 32340

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,358 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1950 1.18 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Country Life! This large, brick exterior home sites on a little over one spacious acre just north of the quaint town of Madison, Florida. It has just under 3,000 total sq ft and 2,358 of living space with attached garage, interior storage and utility room. Currently 3 bedrooms with office which could easily turned into 4th bedroom. House positioned perfectly on the lot with decent front yard and nice sized back yard with small shed. Close to town and local amenities while in commuting distance to Valdosta, Tallahassee and Lake City. This property is an estate and being sold as is.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Utility room
• Attached garage

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• SPACIOUS ACRE
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• INTERIOR STORAGE
• UTILITY ROOM
• FRONT YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Central air conditioning; Heat pump heating
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Porch with screened area; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (14x14)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (12x11); Bedroom 3 (12x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Gas cooling capability
• Interior features: Screened porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#437 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Madison (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #64 of 73 in FL (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 31 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,411 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $77,987
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $241,269
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32340

• Home prices YoY: 32.0%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,384/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $129,384

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-133	-5% $-181	+0% $-229	+5% $-277	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-331	-5% $-280	+0% $-229	+5% $-179	+10% $-128
Rate	-1.0pp $-144	-0.5pp $-186	base $-229	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 286 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 285 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 284 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 283 DOM
18. 2026-04-10
    status Active
19. 2026-04-10
    price $169,900
20. 2026-03-30
    historical
21. 2026-01-19
    price $179,900
22. 2025-12-08
    status Active
23. 2025-11-30
    historical
24. 2025-11-25
    price $199,900
25. 2025-09-05
    price $209,900
26. 2025-08-14
    price $219,900
27. 2025-08-01
    listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,384 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,384 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$3,384
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$5,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,380
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison
• NCES district ID: 1201200
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,925
• Composite: 32.54/100
• National rank: #5693
• State rank: #64 of 73 in FL

Livability — Madison

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #7819

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,424

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,849 people
• By 2030: 15,883 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 13,861 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 11,918 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 7,810 · -53.6%
• By 2100: 4,684 · -72.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 43% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.3% · R 64.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 65.13%
• Current HPI: 268.8459
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-26.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $169,900 CATRS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $179,900 CATRS
• 2025-12-08 Relisted — CATRS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $199,900 CATRS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $209,900 CATRS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $219,900 CATRS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $229,900 CATRS

Property tax history

+27.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,384 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.