10496 Pioneer Rd · Belle Fontaine, AL 36582

$99,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,363 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1963 2.05 ac lot $73/sqft · 36% below area Est $155k · 36% under ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Large storage shed
• 2.05 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• ATTACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#398 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.58%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,000
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -36.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $28,921
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $83,007
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36582

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $99,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-05-04
   price $99,000 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

7. 2026-05-04
   status Active 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

8. 2026-04-11
   historical 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

9. 2026-04-07
   status Active 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

10. 2026-04-02
    historical 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

11. 2026-03-31
    status Active 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

12. 2026-02-24
    historical 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

13. 2025-11-14
    price $115,000 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

14. 2025-10-10
    price $125,000 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

15. 2025-09-27
    listed $145,000 Active 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    2 +/- acres corner lot with lots of road frontage in Theodore near Belle Fontaine and Bayleys Corner (on the way to Dauphin Island). The 3/1.5 house is brick and needs renovation. It has a large storage shed and attached carport. SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS and is available for only CASH offers. Subject to Probate Court approval. Allow 6-8 weeks for approval,closing at Surety Land Title Airport. Allow up to 3 business days for seller response. Utilities are off and seller will not be reconnecting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $7,273
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,746
• After-tax cash flow: $6,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Belle Fontaine

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #22301

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,705
• Household income: $64,763
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.61%
• Current HPI: 209.7621
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-31.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $99,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-11 Delisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-02 Delisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-24 Delisted — GCMLS AL
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $115,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $125,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-09-27 Listed $145,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $476 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.