34649 Morning Glory Gln · Wesley Chapel, FL 33541

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Manufactured public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1984 5,035 sqft lot Est $124k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tippecanoe Village. Resident owned park - you own your own lot. Low fees $55/month pays for water, sewer, garbage, and trash pick-up, clubhouse, pool and more. Doublewide, some furniture. Family room, enclosed porch, laundry and workshop area. Double roof, 2 bedroom, 2bath mobile home waiting for you!

Key facts

• New stove
• Built-in cabinetry
• Bonus room

Tags

• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW STOVE
• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• LARGE SCREENED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $80; Total annual fees $960; Partially furnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $80); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court; Association fee includes pool, sewer, trash, water; Association approval required; Senior community; Community features: clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, pool, street lights; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats/dogs OK, breed restrictions, number limit, max pet weight 30 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces south; Completed condition; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered screened side porch; Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Outdoor storage; Mature landscaping; Paved lot, in county; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Blinds; Bonus room; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry room; Outside laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $125k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.36%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,488
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34704 Morning Glory Gln	0.03mi	3/2.0	888 (-5%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	86
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+3%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	81
34630 Petunia Pl	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-8%)	10mo	$115,000	$133	69
34552 Rosebud Row	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-8%)	19mo	$118,000	$137	62
34632 Sweetpea Ln	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-13%)	6mo	$70,000	$86	62
34701 Morning Glory Gln	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+13%)	16mo	$165,000	$156	59
34645 Lily Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+13%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	59
4101 Joyful Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-1%)	8mo	$155,000	$168	54
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	988 (+6%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	51
3901 William Hume Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	936 (0%)	16mo	$149,900	$160	49
35051 Colony Hills Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+3%)	11mo	$120,000	$125	47
34313 Countryside Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+11%)	16mo	$139,900	$135	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $17,506
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $49,337
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $669/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,068

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.55mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	0.97mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.11mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	12d	71	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $125,000 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   price $125,000
5. 2026-04-18
   price $136,500
6. 2026-03-25
   listed $141,500 Active
7. 2012-01-12
   soldstatus $47,500
8. 2012-01-09
   soldstatus $47,500 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Tippecanoe Village. Resident owned park - you own your own lot. Low fees $55/month pays for water, sewer, garbage, and trash pick-up, clubhouse, pool and more. Doublewide, some furniture. Family room, enclosed porch, laundry and workshop area. Double roof, 2 bedroom, 2bath mobile home waiting for you!

9. 2011-09-21
   listed $59,900 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Tippecanoe Village. Resident owned park - you own your own lot. Low fees $55/month pays for water, sewer, garbage, and trash pick-up, clubhouse, pool and more. Doublewide, some furniture. Family room, enclosed porch, laundry and workshop area. Double roof, 2 bedroom, 2bath mobile home waiting for you!

10. 2001-10-22
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$369/yr (+$31/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$669
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $6,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+171.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $136,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $141,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2012-01-09 Sold (MLS) $47,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-21 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $669 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.