11685 Lazy Oak Creek Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$278,540

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,083 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

The Haven II Floor Plan - This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. The first floor consists of an open-concept floorplan shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. Four bedrooms are located on the second floor, including the lavish owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Alamo Management Group; Annual association fee of $400; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and stucco exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (13 x 18); Bedroom on second level (13 x 11); Bedroom on second level (11 x 12); Bedroom on second level (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $278,540 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $316,616.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,289 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,616
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11685 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,083 (0%)	1mo	$278,540	$134	99
11692 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,083 (0%)	1mo	$361,990	$174	98
11705 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,083 (0%)	2mo	$358,990	$172	93
11983 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	2mo	$300,990	$152	86
12024 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	2mo	$300,990	$152	86
12003 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	3mo	$300,990	$152	71
12014 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	3mo	$298,990	$151	71
12044 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	4mo	$300,990	$152	70
12035 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	4mo	$298,990	$151	70
12064 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	4mo	$302,990	$153	70
12055 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-5%)	4mo	$298,990	$151	70
29985 Stony Forest Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,856 (-11%)	4mo	$349,990	$189	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $147,534
• Equity at exit: $285,233

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $437,515
• Equity at exit: $615,115

Cash invested: $88,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,660
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,749/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,811

Max offer price $274,482

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,154
• Closing costs: $9,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.39mi
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $278,540
3. 2026-04-09
   price $283,490
4. 2026-04-06
   listed $298,740 Active
5. 2026-04-06
   historical
6. 2026-03-31
   listed $298,740 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,735
• − Property taxes: −$4,749
• − Insurance: −$1,583
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,345
• − Management: −$2,345
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$9,211
• Taxable loss: −$9,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,172
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern design and ample space. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick facade — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Improves the aesthetic and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick facade — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Improves the aesthetic and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $278,540 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $283,490 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $298,740 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $298,740 HARMLS