201 NW 30th St · Cape Coral, FL 33909

$315,885

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · Land · 111 Days on market

Built 2026 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO YOUR NEW DR HORTON HOME!! This is our appealing one-story, open concept, 1499 sqft FREEPORT II Floorplan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2-car garage, all concrete block construction. This home is on a beautiful lot located in Cape Coral. This home boasts Designer cabinets and quartz countertops in both the kitchen and baths. Experience the timeless beauty and durability of RevWood laminated wood floors featured throughout the home, modern flat stock trim and baseboards, all stainless kitchen appliances including refrigerator, paver driveways and lanai, and garage door openers. Be wowed by the INCLUDED "home-is-connected" plus three years of Alarm.com service. This is why owning a brand-new home from America's largest builder is going to be your best option. These homes move quickly so don't miss out. Finishings may vary - images are representational only of the model home based in that community.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept
• Designer cabinets

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• DESIGNER CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• REVWOOD LAMINATED WOOD FLOORS
• STAINLESS KITCHEN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Irrigation water maintained; Community amenities: None; Community type: See remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residential; 1-story ranch; New construction (built 2026); Located in Cape Coral development
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Single-hung windows; Manual shutters; Stone exterior finish; City-maintained road; Regular lot; Rear exposure facing south; Lot dimensions approx. 80' x 125' (total area 0.24 acres); Surveyed lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Cooktop (electric); Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Pantry; Walk-in closet; Great room floor plan; Laundry in residence; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 1597 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,273 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.32%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-68,558
• Equity at exit: $47,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-98,827
• Equity at exit: $27,312

Cash invested: $88,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33909

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 1597
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,657
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,379

Max offer price $285,711

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,971
• Closing costs: $9,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2907 Santa Barbara Blvd N Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,775	$1.47	10d	1	0.23mi
2919 NW 4th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1639	$1,926	$1.18	3d	1	0.24mi
2936 NW 4th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1769	$1,895	$1.07	23d	1	0.24mi
3055 NW 3rd Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,675	$1.41	3d	1	0.26mi
3024 NE 1st Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1499	$1,695	$1.13	19d	1	0.32mi
3220 NW 1st Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1723	$2,250	$1.31	23d	1	0.38mi
3010 NE 1st Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,750	$1.74	23d	1	0.38mi
3229 NW 1st Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,811	$0.99	2d	1	0.42mi
2616 NW 1st Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1829	$1,946	$1.06	21d	1	0.47mi
51 Wilmington Pkwy Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1681	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	0.56mi
36 NW 26th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,990	$1.57	3d	1	0.57mi
221 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,780	$1.27	23d	1	0.65mi
101 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1613	$1,900	$1.18	3d	1	0.65mi
501 NW 26th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,200	$1.50	14d	1	0.68mi
2524 NE 1st Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1683	$2,250	$1.34	23d	1	0.69mi
721 NW Douglas Cir Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,770	$1.52	19d	1	0.71mi
324 NW 24th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,500	$1.67	3d	1	0.78mi
609 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	3d	1	0.86mi
2809 NW 8th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	23d	1	0.88mi
2603 NE 4th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,471	$1.08	3d	1	0.93mi
2227 NW 3rd Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,799	$1.02	23d	1	0.95mi
2227 NW 3rd Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	1771	$1,999	$1.13	14d	1	0.95mi
331 NE 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1565	$2,000	$1.28	23d	1	0.95mi
2620 NE 5th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1597	$3,500	$2.19	23d	1	0.97mi
520 NW 23rd Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1693	$2,350	$1.39	23d	1	0.98mi
2604 NW 8th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,795	$1.09	21d	1	1.01mi
2925 NE 6th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,000	$1.21	23d	1	1.02mi
3026 NE 6th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,095	$1.24	23d	1	1.06mi
2728 NE 6th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,795	$1.02	1d	1	1.10mi
2107 NE 1st Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,895	$1.08	1d	1	1.19mi
2308 NW 9th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1683	$2,200	$1.31	23d	1	1.29mi
1011 Kismet Pkwy W Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,100	$1.18	3d	1	1.34mi
1913 NE Juanita Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,395	$1.41	14d	1	1.38mi
2000 NW 7th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1708	$1,950	$1.14	14d	1	1.42mi
2000 NW 7th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1708	$1,950	$1.14	23d	1	1.42mi
2024 NE 5th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,850	$1.14	3d	1	1.44mi
1831 NW 6th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,795	$0.98	1d	1	1.46mi
1834 NW 6th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,575	$1.31	23d	1	1.46mi
1834 NW 6th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,530	$1.27	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,885 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,885 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,885 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,885 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,885 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,885 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,885 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $315,885 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $315,885 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,885 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-02-27
    listed $315,885 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    WELCOME TO YOUR NEW DR HORTON HOME!! This is our appealing one-story, open concept, 1499 sqft FREEPORT II Floorplan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2-car garage, all concrete block construction. This home is on a beautiful lot located in Cape Coral. This home boasts Designer cabinets and quartz countertops in both the kitchen and baths. Experience the timeless beauty and durability of RevWood laminated wood floors featured throughout the home, modern flat stock trim and baseboards, all stainless kitchen appliances including refrigerator, paver driveways and lanai, and garage door openers. Be wowed by the INCLUDED "home-is-connected" plus three years of Alarm.com service. This is why owning a brand-new home from America's largest builder is going to be your best option. These homes move quickly so don't miss out. Finishings may vary - images are representational only of the model home based in that community.

12. 2026-02-26
    listed $315,885 Active
13. 2025-12-19
    soldstatus $1,102,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,622 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,527/yr (+$127/mo · 139.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$1,579
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$9,189
• Taxable loss: −$7,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,862
• After-tax cash flow: $-188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,231
• Household income: $73,053
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1657.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 14% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.24%
• Current HPI: 313.8761
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.60%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-71.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $315,885 Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Listed $315,885 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,102,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,095 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.