804 Vance St E · Wilson, NC 27893

$39,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1925 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing investment opportunity in city limits to renovate large home in fast developing Wilson. Lots of upside potential with this 3-bedroom home. Must see to appreciate. Seller would prefer package deal with home listed at 303 Elba E. only a few blocks away.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 92 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.2 acres (approx. 8,712 sq ft); No pool; No other structures
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Outside parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: House; Two stories; Fixer condition
• Construction: Concrete and block foundation; Concrete construction materials (see remarks); Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: No patio or porch listed; No exterior features listed; No fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating: see remarks; No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $825 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 3.4% in Wilson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#374 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #119 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frederick Douglass Elementary (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 357 students, 99% FRL); Forest Hills Middle (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #286 of 475 statewide, top 61%, 670 students, 99% FRL); James Hunt High (math 67% / reading 58%, grade B-, #179 of 535 statewide, top 34%, 1,069 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 58% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 580 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,945 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.48%
• DSCR: 4.98
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,873
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Railroad St E	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,222 (-0%)	11mo	$228,000	$103	56
405 Vance St E	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,987 (-11%)	13mo	$45,500	$23	48
408 Tarboro St E	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,046 (-8%)	19mo	$165,000	$81	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $51,846
• Equity at exit: $5,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.1%
• Equity multiple: 13.50×
• Total profit: $138,282
• Equity at exit: $3,415

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27893

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $327/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $318

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,500 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,500 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,500 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,500 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,500 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,500 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,500 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,500 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,500 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,500 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,500 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-03-18
    listed $39,500 Active
19. 2026-03-10
    listed $39,600 Active
20. 2026-03-10
    historical
21. 2024-01-22
    soldstatus $19,500
22. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $327 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $327 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$327
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $9,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,361
• After-tax cash flow: $7,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3705020
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,342
• Composite: 32.64/100
• National rank: #5665
• State rank: #119 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #14674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson, NC
• County: Wilson County · 57,967 people
• City population: 57,967
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• Population (ZIP): 38,512
• Household income: $42,810
• Rent vs Own: 55.8% rent · 44.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2175.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,765 people
• By 2030: 82,492 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 81,054 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 78,610 · -5.0%
• By 2075: 71,865 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 62,792 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+2.9 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+7.3 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.54%
• Current HPI: 211.4136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.01%
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+31.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $39,500 TMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $39,600 TMLS
• 2024-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records
• 2022-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $327 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.