140 Paulette Way · Antioch, CA 94509

$44,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1969

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

??PRICE DROP?? Serious inquiries only. Please message:

Key facts

• Built 1969
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 49.9% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,226 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 155.80%
• DSCR: 7.93
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $624,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1808 Johnson Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,419 (-5%)	2mo	$570,000	$402	57
1929 Johnson Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,419 (-5%)	11mo	$550,000	$388	55
2853 Seville Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,309 (-12%)	4mo	$566,500	$433	54
2916 Garfield Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-13%)	2mo	$570,000	$443	52
2333 Arthur Way	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (-9%)	0mo	$605,000	$449	47
2200 Lopez Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,309 (-12%)	12mo	$550,000	$420	47
2921 Lucena Way	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,302 (-12%)	5mo	$525,000	$403	45
2832 Lucena Way	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,309 (-12%)	10mo	$588,700	$450	43
4820 Eisenhower Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (-8%)	7mo	$505,000	$370	42
2709 Cabrillo Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,302 (-12%)	2mo	$555,000	$426	42
2028 Putnam St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-13%)	9mo	$510,000	$396	41
4324 Delta Fair Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,290 (-13%)	9mo	$475,000	$368	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.32×
• Total profit: $92,084
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.58×
• Total profit: $195,888
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,459 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $1,632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,663	-5% $1,648	+0% $1,632	+5% $1,617	+10% $1,601
Rent	-10% $1,438	-5% $1,535	+0% $1,632	+5% $1,729	+10% $1,827
Rate	-1.0pp $1,655	-0.5pp $1,644	base $1,632	+0.5pp $1,621	+1.0pp $1,609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3101 Buchanan Rd Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	2d	4	0.14mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,023	$2.52	2d	1	0.20mi
2433 Sequoia Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1058	$2,795	$2.64	44d	1	0.24mi
2201 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,437	$3.55	2d	8	0.64mi
2500 Florida Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	44d	1	0.65mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	44d	1	0.67mi
1902 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,100	$2.69	44d	1	0.82mi
1312 Mission Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,975	$2.07	5d	1	0.87mi
2415 Horizon Ln #129 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,800	$2.97	44d	1	0.89mi
2725 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	18d	1	0.95mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,922	$1.89	2d	10	0.95mi
2221 Dogwood Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,995	$2.60	44d	1	1.09mi
2112 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,900	$2.51	44d	1	1.15mi
1608 Sycamore Dr Apt 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	5d	1	1.18mi
2308 Lemontree Way #4 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,695	$1.83	44d	1	1.22mi
1508 Crestview Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$2,949	$2.46	44d	1	1.23mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 18 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,800	$2.71	44d	1	1.25mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,500	$2.42	44d	1	1.25mi
1209 Tulip Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,995	$2.23	44d	1	1.32mi
2205 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$1,695	$1.88	15d	1	1.32mi
2106 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	5d	1	1.33mi
2106 Peppertree Way #3 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	44d	1	1.33mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,359	$2.79	2d	20	1.35mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,554	$3.05	2d	8	1.37mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	44d	1	1.38mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	25d	1	1.38mi
60 Xena Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.5	1805	$3,200	$1.77	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $44,900 Active
16. 2025-07-21
    historical $950
17. 2025-06-20
    listed $950
18. 2018-01-30
    historical
19. 2018-01-24
    listed New
20. 2009-03-05
    historical
21. 2008-12-30
    price
22. 2008-11-05
    price
23. 2008-11-05
    status
24. 2007-09-01
    price
25. 2007-08-01
    listed
26. 2007-07-22
    historical
27. 2007-07-21
    price
28. 2007-03-30
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $20,067
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,816
• After-tax cash flow: $14,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $44,900 FSBO.com
• 2025-07-21 Rental Removed $950 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-06-20 Listed for Rent $950 TURBOTENANT
• 2018-01-30 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-01-24 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2009-03-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-12-30 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-11-05 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-11-05 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-09-01 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-08-01 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-07-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-07-21 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-03-30 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR