8431 Dover St · Houston, TX 77061

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,191 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1958 7,148 sqft lot Est $276k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No more showings! Multiple offers received!!! Priced for a quick sale for this estate family home. Home being sold AS-IS with no warranty or guarantees. Great Flip opportunity with an estimated ARV of $274K. Must have an appointment to walk onto property. NO TRESPASSING!

Key facts

• 7,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1958; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric)
• Interior features: Den; Dining room; Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($194/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewis El (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 714 students, 99% FRL); Ortiz Middle (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 871 students, 97% FRL); Chavez H S (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,272 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 50 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,066
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8622 Dover St	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,278 (+4%)	6mo	$185,000	$81	76
7718 Dillon St	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,108 (-4%)	2mo	$183,000	$87	72
8103 Glen Vista St	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,089 (-5%)	2mo	$199,900	$96	67
7726 Glenbrae St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,981 (-10%)	15mo	$255,000	$129	66
7851 Pecan Villas Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,301 (+5%)	5mo	$300,000	$130	66
8355 Glencrest St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,049 (-6%)	11mo	$209,000	$102	55
7742 Wilmerdean St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,943 (-11%)	11mo	$249,900	$129	54
7707 Alanwood St	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,518 (+15%)	6mo	$215,000	$85	52
8102 Wilmerdean St	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,071 (-6%)	13mo	$279,900	$135	50
8107 Dillon St	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,361 (+8%)	4mo	$269,999	$114	44
8203 Wilmerdean St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,908 (-13%)	9mo	$239,900	$126	39
8202 Glencrest St	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,504 (+14%)	2mo	$398,500	$159	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-29,638
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-42,773
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77061

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,738/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,646

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $61	+0% $16	+5% $-29	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-50	+0% $16	+5% $82	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $57	base $16	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8100 Leonora St Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1575	$1,400	$0.89	21d	2	0.66mi
8100 Leonora St Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1575	$1,400	$0.89	45d	3	0.66mi
7758 Hereford St Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2365	$2,500	$1.06	45d	1	0.89mi
8705 Bryam #1302 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1501	$1,895	$1.26	45d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $160,000 Active
4. 1999-05-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$4,738
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$565
• After-tax cash flow: $759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,004
• Household income: $45,115
• Rent vs Own: 62.1% rent · 37.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1546.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Black 21% Two or more races 20% White 7% Asian 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 58% Vietnamese 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.75%
• Current HPI: 303.8705
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 1999-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,738 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.