64 Oriole Rd · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$309,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2025 $98/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully designed Firefly floorplan by Starlight Homes, offering 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a functional, open-concept layout perfect for modern living. The spacious kitchen features elegant granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a seamless flow into the living and dining areas, ideal for entertaining or everyday comfort. The private primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully finished with stylish quartz countertops, adding a touch of durability and sophistication. With quality finishes throughout and a layout designed for convenience and efficie

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee $98 monthly; CDD fee applicable ($64.56)

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Fiber cement construction
• Exterior features: Community pool (association); Paved road access; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1367 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,363 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-62,601
• Equity at exit: $46,221

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-81,594
• Equity at exit: $26,802

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1367
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $770/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$98
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,426

Max offer price $287,263

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Oriole Rd Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,400	$1.71	14d	1	0.23mi
8 Oriole Rd Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,400	$1.79	3d	1	0.23mi
16 Porpoise Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	2427	$2,650	$1.09	3d	1	0.59mi
21 Spring St Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$2,690	$1.27	23d	1	0.68mi
35 Postman Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,950	$1.03	23d	1	0.96mi
3 Port Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	3d	1	0.97mi
15 Postman Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1728	$1,975	$1.14	3d	1	1.05mi
57 Pilgrim Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,049	$1.22	3d	1	1.12mi
65 Pony Express Dr Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,520	$1.22	23d	1	1.21mi
65B Pony Express Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	1.21mi
85 Pony Express Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,675	$1.30	3d	1	1.21mi
33 Pinwheel Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	23d	1	1.22mi
29 Pony Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,625	$1.24	3d	1	1.27mi
176 Pine Grove Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1989	$2,200	$1.11	23d	1	1.29mi
53 Pony Express Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,595	$1.22	23d	1	1.30mi
100 Wilton Cir Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,430	$2.39	3d	24	1.30mi
56 Pine Brook Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,895	$1.26	14d	1	1.31mi
22 Pony Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2168	$1,850	$0.85	14d	1	1.34mi
17 Ponderosa Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,575	$1.22	23d	1	1.35mi
13 Pilgrim Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$2,060	$1.27	21d	1	1.39mi
101 Brookhaven Ct N Palm Coast, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1178	$1,832	$1.55	3d	10	1.41mi
11 Pony Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,680	$1.37	23d	1	1.41mi
43 Ponce Deleon Dr Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,800	$1.39	3d	1	1.42mi
10 Pontiac Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,825	$1.20	3d	1	1.43mi
3 Pinwheel Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,100	$1.65	23d	1	1.45mi
402 Tuscan Reserve Dr Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,076	$2.08	3d	10	1.45mi
192 Pine Grove Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$2,300	$1.19	21d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $98 · $1,176/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   price $309,990
3. 2026-04-17
   price $320,990
4. 2026-03-27
   price $318,990
5. 2026-03-17
   listed $319,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $770 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,573 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,803/yr (+$150/mo · 234.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$770
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,173
• − Management: −$2,173
• − HOA: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$7,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,694
• After-tax cash flow: $151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $309,990 realMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $320,990 realMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $318,990 realMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $319,990 realMLS