491 Northland Ave · Buffalo, NY 14211

$149,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1920 3,600 sqft lot Est $134k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0

Listing remarks

This is a beautiful single-family listing, offers an incredible blend of comfortable living space and convenience to everything, 3 bedrooms and 1 full-bathroom Single family house. The house is ready to move. The first floor has living, dining, and a kitchen and the 2nd floor has 3-bedroom and full bathroom. The property could be a great investment property or owner occupied.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,761/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $150k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.16%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,812
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
491 Northland Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,239 (0%)	0mo	$155,775	$126	95
42 Schauf Ave	0.34mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,281 (+3%)	5mo	$170,000	$133	70
378 Northland Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,183 (-4%)	9mo	$125,000	$106	65
855 Woodlawn Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,303 (+5%)	10mo	$116,500	$89	53
102 Carl St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (-6%)	2mo	$124,900	$108	50
352 Florida St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-7%)	23mo	$70,000	$61	48
323 Grider St	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,418 (+14%)	1mo	$128,000	$90	38
849 Woodlawn Ave	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,124 (-9%)	14mo	$168,800	$150	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $33,309
• Equity at exit: $59,524

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $96,503
• Equity at exit: $86,022

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	3d	1	0.24mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	0.28mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.41mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	14d	1	0.43mi
102 Florida St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	44d	1	0.73mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	44d	1	0.91mi
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	0.95mi
238 Oxford Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	1.19mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	14d	1	1.39mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	14d	1	1.39mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	44d	1	1.39mi
1560 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $149,900 Active
3. 2025-10-30
   historical
4. 2025-08-19
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2024-12-31
   historical
6. 2024-12-20
   price $125,000
7. 2024-09-06
   listed $124,900 Active
8. 2020-09-25
   soldstatus $46,000
9. 2020-03-21
   historical
10. 2019-12-19
    price $45,900
11. 2019-12-04
    price $40,900
12. 2019-10-31
    price $42,900
13. 2019-09-16
    price $48,000
14. 2019-09-09
    listed $55,700 Active
15. 2017-09-27
    historical
16. 2017-08-09
    price $53,900
17. 2017-06-28
    listed $54,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,996
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$479
• After-tax cash flow: $3,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+173.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2019-12-19 Price Changed $45,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-12-04 Price Changed $40,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-10-31 Price Changed $42,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-09-16 Price Changed $48,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-09-09 Listed $55,700 WNYREIS
• 2017-09-27 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-08-09 Price Changed $53,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-06-28 Listed $54,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $179 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.