55 Canary Palm Ct · Nocatee, FL 32081

$335,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2016 2,178 sqft lot $265/sqft · 10% below area Est $374k · 10% under $283/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated townhome in the highly sought-after Palms of Nocatee East, perfectly positioned on one of the community's most serene streets with peaceful preserve views. This two-story residence offers open and thoughtfully designed living space. Meticulously maintained with new LVP flooring throughout, a full interior repaint, and tastefully updated bathrooms, making this home truly move-in ready. Enjoy the ease of a 1-car attached garage and a layout that balances comfort and functionality. The location is exceptional-6 miles from Mickler's Landing Beach, 2 miles from Nocatee Town Center, with a variety of dining and shopping. Residents also enjoy access to Nocatee's award-winning amenities, including waterparks, resort-style pools, pickleball-tennis courts, basketball courts, and top-rated schools. This home offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with the perfect blend of tranquility & convenience.

Key facts

• $283 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2016

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-776 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (40.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (40.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $678 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $232k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,946 (40.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.93%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,170
• List price: $335,000
• Delta: -10.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Captiva Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,434 (+14%)	7mo	$428,000	$298	51
217 Pindo Palm Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (+10%)	15mo	$430,000	$310	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-71,026
• Equity at exit: $89,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-106,477
• Equity at exit: $100,902

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$499 /mo · $5,987/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$283
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,390

Max offer price $197,946

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Banfield Ln Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,200	$1.90	7d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $283 · $3,396/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $335,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $335,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $339,000 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated townhome in the highly sought-after Palms of Nocatee East, perfectly positioned on one of the community's most serene streets with peaceful preserve views. This two-story residence offers open and thoughtfully designed living space. Meticulously maintained with new LVP flooring throughout, a full interior repaint, and tastefully updated bathrooms, making this home truly move-in ready. Enjoy the ease of a 1-car attached garage and a layout that balances comfort and functionality. The location is exceptional-6 miles from Mickler's Landing Beach, 2 miles from Nocatee Town Center, with a variety of dining and shopping. Residents also enjoy access to Nocatee's award-winning amenities, including waterparks, resort-style pools, pickleball-tennis courts, basketball courts, and top-rated schools. This home offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with the perfect blend of tranquility & convenience.

15. 2026-05-04
    price $344,000 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated townhome in the highly sought-after Palms of Nocatee East, perfectly positioned on one of the community's most serene streets with peaceful preserve views. This two-story residence offers open and thoughtfully designed living space. Meticulously maintained with new LVP flooring throughout, a full interior repaint, and tastefully updated bathrooms, making this home truly move-in ready. Enjoy the ease of a 1-car attached garage and a layout that balances comfort and functionality. The location is exceptional-6 miles from Mickler's Landing Beach, 2 miles from Nocatee Town Center, with a variety of dining and shopping. Residents also enjoy access to Nocatee's award-winning amenities, including waterparks, resort-style pools, pickleball-tennis courts, basketball courts, and top-rated schools. This home offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with the perfect blend of tranquility & convenience.

16. 2026-04-13
    listed $349,000 Active 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated townhome in the highly sought-after Palms of Nocatee East, perfectly positioned on one of the community's most serene streets with peaceful preserve views. This two-story residence offers open and thoughtfully designed living space. Meticulously maintained with new LVP flooring throughout, a full interior repaint, and tastefully updated bathrooms, making this home truly move-in ready. Enjoy the ease of a 1-car attached garage and a layout that balances comfort and functionality. The location is exceptional-6 miles from Mickler's Landing Beach, 2 miles from Nocatee Town Center, with a variety of dining and shopping. Residents also enjoy access to Nocatee's award-winning amenities, including waterparks, resort-style pools, pickleball-tennis courts, basketball courts, and top-rated schools. This home offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with the perfect blend of tranquility & convenience.

17. 2019-08-05
    soldstatus $232,000
18. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus $232,000 Sold 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    You'll love this CHARMING 2-story town home located at The Palms in Nocatee. Situated in St. Johns County with ''A'' RATED SCHOOLS, zoned for Palm Valley Academy. Enjoy maintenance-free living with plenty of time to enjoy the Splash Park, fitness center, walking trails and so much more. Inside the home, hardwood flooring runs throughout the main floor and features the kitchen, dining room, family room, and half bath perfect for entertaining. The upgraded, gourmet kitchen has a large bar for counter seating, granite counter tops, farmhouse sink, gas range, stainless steel appliances, and spacious pantry. Relax and enjoy the quiet preserve view from your lanai.

19. 2019-07-25
    status Pending 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    You'll love this CHARMING 2-story town home located at The Palms in Nocatee. Situated in St. Johns County with ''A'' RATED SCHOOLS, zoned for Palm Valley Academy. Enjoy maintenance-free living with plenty of time to enjoy the Splash Park, fitness center, walking trails and so much more. Inside the home, hardwood flooring runs throughout the main floor and features the kitchen, dining room, family room, and half bath perfect for entertaining. The upgraded, gourmet kitchen has a large bar for counter seating, granite counter tops, farmhouse sink, gas range, stainless steel appliances, and spacious pantry. Relax and enjoy the quiet preserve view from your lanai.

20. 2019-06-07
    historical Active - Contingent 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    You'll love this CHARMING 2-story town home located at The Palms in Nocatee. Situated in St. Johns County with ''A'' RATED SCHOOLS, zoned for Palm Valley Academy. Enjoy maintenance-free living with plenty of time to enjoy the Splash Park, fitness center, walking trails and so much more. Inside the home, hardwood flooring runs throughout the main floor and features the kitchen, dining room, family room, and half bath perfect for entertaining. The upgraded, gourmet kitchen has a large bar for counter seating, granite counter tops, farmhouse sink, gas range, stainless steel appliances, and spacious pantry. Relax and enjoy the quiet preserve view from your lanai.

21. 2019-05-08
    price $237,000 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    You'll love this CHARMING 2-story town home located at The Palms in Nocatee. Situated in St. Johns County with ''A'' RATED SCHOOLS, zoned for Palm Valley Academy. Enjoy maintenance-free living with plenty of time to enjoy the Splash Park, fitness center, walking trails and so much more. Inside the home, hardwood flooring runs throughout the main floor and features the kitchen, dining room, family room, and half bath perfect for entertaining. The upgraded, gourmet kitchen has a large bar for counter seating, granite counter tops, farmhouse sink, gas range, stainless steel appliances, and spacious pantry. Relax and enjoy the quiet preserve view from your lanai.

22. 2019-04-22
    price $245,000 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    You'll love this CHARMING 2-story town home located at The Palms in Nocatee. Situated in St. Johns County with ''A'' RATED SCHOOLS, zoned for Palm Valley Academy. Enjoy maintenance-free living with plenty of time to enjoy the Splash Park, fitness center, walking trails and so much more. Inside the home, hardwood flooring runs throughout the main floor and features the kitchen, dining room, family room, and half bath perfect for entertaining. The upgraded, gourmet kitchen has a large bar for counter seating, granite counter tops, farmhouse sink, gas range, stainless steel appliances, and spacious pantry. Relax and enjoy the quiet preserve view from your lanai.

23. 2019-04-11
    listed $249,000 Active 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    You'll love this CHARMING 2-story town home located at The Palms in Nocatee. Situated in St. Johns County with ''A'' RATED SCHOOLS, zoned for Palm Valley Academy. Enjoy maintenance-free living with plenty of time to enjoy the Splash Park, fitness center, walking trails and so much more. Inside the home, hardwood flooring runs throughout the main floor and features the kitchen, dining room, family room, and half bath perfect for entertaining. The upgraded, gourmet kitchen has a large bar for counter seating, granite counter tops, farmhouse sink, gas range, stainless steel appliances, and spacious pantry. Relax and enjoy the quiet preserve view from your lanai.

24. 2016-03-30
    soldstatus $187,744 Sold
25. 2015-09-04
    status Pending
26. 2015-08-12
    price $194,990
27. 2015-06-26
    listed $192,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,987 · $499/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,987 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$5,987
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,312
• − Management: −$2,312
• − HOA: −$3,396
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$15,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,671
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+75.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $339,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $344,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $349,000 realMLS
• 2019-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $232,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) $232,000 realMLS
• 2019-07-25 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-06-07 Contingent — realMLS
• 2019-05-08 Price Changed $237,000 realMLS
• 2019-04-22 Price Changed $245,000 realMLS
• 2019-04-11 Listed $249,000 realMLS
• 2016-03-30 Sold (MLS) $187,744 realMLS
• 2015-09-04 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-08-12 Price Changed $194,990 realMLS
• 2015-06-26 Listed $192,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,987 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.