15363 Mystic Rock Dr · Westfield, IN 46033

$309,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,831 sqft · Condo public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2005 $169/sqft · at area comps Est $313k · at est. $137/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover elevated, low-maintenance living in this beautifully 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome nestled within the highly desirable Bridgewater Club community. Thoughtfully designed for both comfort and flexibility, the upper level features two expansive primary suites, each with its own private full bath-ideal for guests, roommates, or multigenerational living. The main-level space offers a versatile third bedroom or home office, perfectly suited to today's lifestyle needs. Newly installed A/C and HVAC unit in August 2025. Bridgewater Club membership is included, unlocking an exceptional resort-style experience. Enjoy the acclaimed Pete Dye-designed 18-hole championship golf course, a 23-acre practice facility with covered and heated stalls, an indoor putting room, tennis and pickleball courts, indoor and outdoor pools, a full fitness center, and multiple dining venues ideal for casual lunches, social gatherings, or post-round unwinding. Residents also benefit from scenic walking trails, youth sports programs, and a full calendar of community events year-round. Additional highlights include an attached two-car garage and a prime Westfield location just minutes from shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy luxury, convenience, and an active lifestyle in one of Westfield's most prestigious communities.

Key facts

• Full fitness center
• Indoor putting room
• $137 HOA

Tags

• PETE DYE DESIGNED GOLF COURSE
• 23 ACRE PRACTICE FACILITY
• INDOOR PUTTING ROOM
• TENNIS AND PICKLEBALL COURTS
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS
• FULL FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $309k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Westfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#140 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Westfield-Washington Schools (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #10 of 301 in IN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $271,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,984
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -1.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-20,121
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $77,619
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46033

• Rents YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,795/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$137
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,999

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15295 Mystic Rock Dr Carmel, IN	4.0	3.5	2272	$3,795	$1.67	43d	1	0.02mi
15296 Mystic Rock Dr Carmel, IN	3.0	3.5	2285	$3,895	$1.70	43d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $137 · $1,644/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $309,000 Pending 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $309,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $309,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $309,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $309,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-02-04
    listed $309,000 Active 1356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1356 chars)

    Discover elevated, low-maintenance living in this beautifully 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome nestled within the highly desirable Bridgewater Club community. Thoughtfully designed for both comfort and flexibility, the upper level features two expansive primary suites, each with its own private full bath-ideal for guests, roommates, or multigenerational living. The main-level space offers a versatile third bedroom or home office, perfectly suited to today's lifestyle needs. Newly installed A/C and HVAC unit in August 2025. Bridgewater Club membership is included, unlocking an exceptional resort-style experience. Enjoy the acclaimed Pete Dye-designed 18-hole championship golf course, a 23-acre practice facility with covered and heated stalls, an indoor putting room, tennis and pickleball courts, indoor and outdoor pools, a full fitness center, and multiple dining venues ideal for casual lunches, social gatherings, or post-round unwinding. Residents also benefit from scenic walking trails, youth sports programs, and a full calendar of community events year-round. Additional highlights include an attached two-car garage and a prime Westfield location just minutes from shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy luxury, convenience, and an active lifestyle in one of Westfield's most prestigious communities.

11. 2024-11-04
    soldstatus $290,000 Closed 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover this stunning townhouse within the popular Bridgewater Club in Carmel. With over 1,800 square feet, this home features two inviting bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, designed for both comfort and functionality. The main level showcases freshly updated flooring that enhances the stylish ambiance, while the spacious kitchen beckons for culinary adventures. With an additional den on the ground level, you'll have ample space for a home office or cozy retreat. A charming walk-out balcony extends your living space outdoors, perfect for relaxation. Enjoy the community's fantastic amenities, including a refreshing swimming pool and fitness center. Experience comfort and style in this cozy Carmel residence!

12. 2024-10-16
    status Pending 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover this stunning townhouse within the popular Bridgewater Club in Carmel. With over 1,800 square feet, this home features two inviting bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, designed for both comfort and functionality. The main level showcases freshly updated flooring that enhances the stylish ambiance, while the spacious kitchen beckons for culinary adventures. With an additional den on the ground level, you'll have ample space for a home office or cozy retreat. A charming walk-out balcony extends your living space outdoors, perfect for relaxation. Enjoy the community's fantastic amenities, including a refreshing swimming pool and fitness center. Experience comfort and style in this cozy Carmel residence!

13. 2024-09-27
    listed $299,900 Active 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover this stunning townhouse within the popular Bridgewater Club in Carmel. With over 1,800 square feet, this home features two inviting bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, designed for both comfort and functionality. The main level showcases freshly updated flooring that enhances the stylish ambiance, while the spacious kitchen beckons for culinary adventures. With an additional den on the ground level, you'll have ample space for a home office or cozy retreat. A charming walk-out balcony extends your living space outdoors, perfect for relaxation. Enjoy the community's fantastic amenities, including a refreshing swimming pool and fitness center. Experience comfort and style in this cozy Carmel residence!

14. 2019-09-03
    soldstatus $191,000 Sold
15. 2019-06-11
    status Pending
16. 2019-05-22
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,795 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,795 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$5,795
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,119
• − Management: −$3,119
• − HOA: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$2,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$608
• After-tax cash flow: $2,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westfield-Washington Schools
• NCES district ID: 1813080
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $82,682
• Composite: 55.01/100
• National rank: #1295
• State rank: #10 of 301 in IN

Livability — Westfield

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #7263

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westfield, IN
• County: Hamilton County · 337,479 people
• City population: 48,901
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 40,881
• Household income: $153,143
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,938 people
• By 2030: 417,496 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 486,684 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 549,805 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 687,078 · +79.9%
• By 2100: 754,495 · +97.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Asian 8% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.0% · R 52.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.2pp toward D · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.29%
• Current HPI: 226.6783
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.44%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+58.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $309,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Sold (MLS) $290,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-27 Listed $299,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-03 Sold (MLS) $191,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-11 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-22 Listed $195,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,795 · +109.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.