5926 Crafton Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$167,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1960 0.49 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An affordable home in North Lakeland now available. The actual (not staged) photos tell the story on this . 49 acre fenced lot in North Lakeland. Nicely packaged site built home with new roof. The fresh paint, new flooring, fixtures, etc. makes this space very inviting and ready for a new family. There is no HOA here. All measurements are to be verified by the buyer.

Key facts

• 1/2 acre
• Dual sinks
• Private backyard

Tags

• 1/2 ACRE
• TRADITIONAL RANCH STYLE
• UPDATED GRAY CABINETS
• MODERN TILE BACKSPLASH
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• DUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R-2; Residential use, single-family sub type; Other on-site structures noted
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; No association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Electricity available; Public utilities available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story (single level); East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.49-acre lot (approx. 150 x 142)
• Exterior features: Trees and landscaped yard; Other exterior features; Patio/porch: none; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (other features)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-65/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (0.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgar L. Padgett Elementary (math 43% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 529 students, 57% FRL); Lake Gibson Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 1,218 students, 56% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,475 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-31,272
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-42,477
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,815/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,708

Max offer price $166,548

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $42	+0% $-5	+5% $-53	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-73	+0% $-5	+5% $62	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $37	base $-5	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	15d	1	0.07mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	25d	1	0.14mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	25d	1	0.22mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	16d	1	0.26mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,312	$2.31	5d	21	0.52mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	25d	1	0.54mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	16d	1	0.54mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	25d	1	0.60mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	5d	1	0.66mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	25d	1	0.67mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	16d	1	0.75mi
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	4d	15	0.82mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	5d	1	0.85mi
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	25d	1	0.94mi
734 Fox Lake Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,910	$1.43	5d	1	0.94mi
235 Leelon Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,295	$1.41	25d	1	0.96mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	25d	1	0.96mi
236 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,550	$1.36	15d	1	0.99mi
239 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,495	$1.64	25d	1	1.00mi
142 Lindale St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,895	$1.28	25d	1	1.03mi
259 Village View Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$1,600	$1.81	25d	1	1.05mi
858 Fox Lake Dr Unit 858 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,495	$1.15	12d	1	1.06mi
111 Lindale St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,350	$1.68	25d	1	1.09mi
7525 Ibis Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,300	$1.35	25d	1	1.37mi
5840 Sandpipers Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,000	$1.15	16d	1	1.47mi
6268 Sandpipers Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,995	$1.34	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $167,500 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,500 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,500 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $167,500 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $167,500 Pending 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $167,500 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $167,500 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $167,500 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-04-30
   status Active
10. 2026-04-28
    status Pending
11. 2026-04-13
    listed $167,500 Active
12. 2022-03-16
    price $2,000
13. 2022-02-09
    soldstatus $285,000
14. 2022-02-03
    soldstatus $285,000 Closed 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    An affordable home in North Lakeland now available. The actual (not staged) photos tell the story on this . 49 acre fenced lot in North Lakeland. Nicely packaged site built home with new roof. The fresh paint, new flooring, fixtures, etc. makes this space very inviting and ready for a new family. There is no HOA here. All measurements are to be verified by the buyer.

15. 2021-12-29
    status Pending 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    An affordable home in North Lakeland now available. The actual (not staged) photos tell the story on this . 49 acre fenced lot in North Lakeland. Nicely packaged site built home with new roof. The fresh paint, new flooring, fixtures, etc. makes this space very inviting and ready for a new family. There is no HOA here. All measurements are to be verified by the buyer.

16. 2021-12-27
    listed $299,900 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    An affordable home in North Lakeland now available. The actual (not staged) photos tell the story on this . 49 acre fenced lot in North Lakeland. Nicely packaged site built home with new roof. The fresh paint, new flooring, fixtures, etc. makes this space very inviting and ready for a new family. There is no HOA here. All measurements are to be verified by the buyer.

17. 2021-08-11
    soldstatus $134,600
18. 2019-11-15
    status Pending
19. 2019-11-13
    historical
20. 2019-10-18
    listed $130,000 Active
21. 2017-07-31
    soldstatus $115,000
22. 2005-10-19
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 1990-05-01
    soldstatus $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,815 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,815 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$4,815
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable loss: −$2,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$662
• After-tax cash flow: $597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+189.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $167,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-16 Price Changed $2,000 RENT.
• 2022-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-03 Sold (MLS) $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-27 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $134,600 Public Records
• 2019-11-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-18 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,815 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.