2550 S Ellsworth Rd #396 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · Manufactured · 134 Days on market

Built 2002 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot $144/sqft · 8% below area Est $180k · 8% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER! Bring all offers for this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a guard-gated 55+ resort-style community designed for comfort and connection. This inviting residence features an Arizona room, ideal for relaxing or enjoying morning coffee, and a large primary bedroom with a separate retreat area—perfect for a sitting room, reading nook, or home office. Residents enjoy a vibrant clubhouse, pool and spa, pickleball, bocce, and shuffleboard, offering opportunities to stay active and socialize. A wonderful place to enjoy an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle.

Key facts

• Pickleball
• Arizona room
• Vibrant clubhouse

Tags

• GUARD GATED COMMUNITY
• ARIZONA ROOM
• VIBRANT CLUBHOUSE
• POOL AND SPA
• PICKLEBALL
• BOCCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Augusta Ranch Elementary (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 953 students, 29% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.03%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -8.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #180	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	2mo	$105,000	$99	85
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #219	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,146 (0%)	14mo	$95,000	$83	83
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #411	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+6%)	13mo	$200,000	$165	74
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #432	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+3%)	13mo	$150,000	$127	70
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #257	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,107 (-3%)	16mo	$115,000	$104	67
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 129B	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,088 (-5%)	7mo	$110,000	$101	62
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 149B	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	2mo	$235,000	$223	62
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #215	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,006 (-12%)	11mo	$125,000	$124	58
8865 E Baseline Rd #344	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	2mo	$180,000	$144	53
8865 E Baseline Rd #1207	0.65mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,085 (-5%)	4mo	$45,000	$41	51
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 157B	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	13mo	$325,000	$308	47
8865 E Baseline Rd #715	0.65mi	2/2.0	998 (-13%)	3mo	$108,000	$108	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $28,970
• Equity at exit: $60,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $76,973
• Equity at exit: $82,955

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $482	+0% $425	+5% $368	+10% $311
Rent	-10% $268	-5% $347	+0% $425	+5% $503	+10% $581
Rate	-1.0pp $508	-0.5pp $467	base $425	+0.5pp $382	+1.0pp $339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2821 S Skyline #157 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,200	$1.53	6d	1	0.30mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	16d	3	0.33mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	26d	1	0.33mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	26d	1	0.34mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	5d	11	0.34mi
2821 S Skyline #127 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,350	$1.63	45d	1	0.36mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	7d	1	0.39mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	16d	1	0.49mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	45d	1	0.49mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	26d	1	0.49mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	20d	1	0.51mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	7d	1	0.51mi
2223 S Gordon Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,250	$1.76	26d	1	0.54mi
8843 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,050	$1.51	6d	1	0.60mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.62mi
3121 S Mandy Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,190	$1.61	5d	1	0.64mi
8852 E Plana Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,995	$1.47	45d	1	0.65mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	21d	1	0.67mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	26d	1	0.67mi
2657 S Keene Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	0d	1	0.73mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,526	$2.70	0d	1	0.74mi
8462 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1473	$1,995	$1.35	45d	1	0.82mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,745	$1.50	0d	12	0.86mi
8438 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1363	$2,300	$1.69	26d	1	0.94mi
2024 S Baldwin #40 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1384	$1,800	$1.30	26d	1	1.02mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,689	$1.49	7d	1	1.03mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,689	$1.41	18d	1	1.03mi
2024 S Baldwin #114 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1148	$1,700	$1.48	26d	1	1.08mi
2024 S Baldwin #114 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1148	$1,700	$1.48	13d	1	1.08mi
2311 S Farnsworth Dr #85 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1332	$3,300	$2.48	5d	1	1.20mi
9909 E Onza Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,165	$1.55	20d	1	1.25mi
9909 E Onza Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,165	$1.55	26d	1	1.25mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	23d	1	1.38mi
7950 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,995	$1.62	25d	1	1.42mi
8149 E Petunia Ave #1003 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,295	$1.75	18d	1	1.43mi
8149 E Petunia Ave #1003 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,295	$1.75	16d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-03-04
   price $165,000 589-char remark

   Show marketing remark (589 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER! Bring all offers for this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a guard-gated 55+ resort-style community designed for comfort and connection. This inviting residence features an Arizona room, ideal for relaxing or enjoying morning coffee, and a large primary bedroom with a separate retreat area—perfect for a sitting room, reading nook, or home office. Residents enjoy a vibrant clubhouse, pool and spa, pickleball, bocce, and shuffleboard, offering opportunities to stay active and socialize. A wonderful place to enjoy an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle.

10. 2026-01-26
    listed $175,000 Active 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! Bring all offers for this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a guard-gated 55+ resort-style community designed for comfort and connection. This inviting residence features an Arizona room, ideal for relaxing or enjoying morning coffee, and a large primary bedroom with a separate retreat area—perfect for a sitting room, reading nook, or home office. Residents enjoy a vibrant clubhouse, pool and spa, pickleball, bocce, and shuffleboard, offering opportunities to stay active and socialize. A wonderful place to enjoy an easy, low-maintenance lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$631
• After-tax cash flow: $4,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a guard-gated community is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Fresh paint and trimming the landscaping can significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both trim landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $175,000 ARMLS