317 Maple Bark Trl · Conroe, TX 77378

$213,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,197 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,817 sqft lot Est $226k · 6% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of style and functionality with the Adams floor plan located in the prestigious community of The Pines at Seven Coves. Designed by Centex Homes, this one-story home offers a spacious layout, maximizing every inch of its floor plan. From the sleek kitchen overlooking the family room to the well-utilized closet space in each room, this home combines timeless elegance with modern convenience. Customize your living space by opting for the study, perfect for those in need of a home office. Dont miss the opportunity to make this remarkable home yours!

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Open-concept layout
• Walking trails

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• TREE-LINED NEIGHBORHOOD
• WALKING TRAILS
• COMMUNITY GREEN SPACES
• QUICK ACCESS TO LAKE CONROE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Community association (The pines at seven coves) with an annual fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2023; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor (approx. 5 x 7); Bathroom on the first floor (approx. 5 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining area combined; Living and dining room; Self-closing cabinet doors; Tub/shower; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-635/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,942 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,233
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Shady Cedar Hill Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+1%)	22mo	$214,900	$178	77
10715 Sora Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+1%)	3mo	$227,090	$189	75
410 Starfly Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+1%)	12mo	$224,990	$187	63
10739 Sora Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+4%)	14mo	$249,090	$201	61
10922 Flycatcher Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+1%)	13mo	$255,530	$212	61
10913 Flycatcher Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+1%)	11mo	$230,990	$192	61
419 Starfly Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+1%)	13mo	$223,760	$186	61
10782 Sora Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+14%)	3mo	$228,290	$167	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-41,750
• Equity at exit: $31,834

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-55,589
• Equity at exit: $18,460

Cash invested: $59,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,120
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,013/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,016

Max offer price $204,148

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $7	+0% $-53	+5% $-113	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-130	+0% $-53	+5% $24	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $1	base $-53	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,375
• Closing costs: $6,405
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	45d	1	1.00mi
27 Lakeway St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,400	$0.93	14d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $213,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $213,500 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $213,500 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,500 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $213,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $213,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $215,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $215,000 Active
16. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus Sold 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of style and functionality with the Adams floor plan located in the prestigious community of The Pines at Seven Coves. Designed by Centex Homes, this one-story home offers a spacious layout, maximizing every inch of its floor plan. From the sleek kitchen overlooking the family room to the well-utilized closet space in each room, this home combines timeless elegance with modern convenience. Customize your living space by opting for the study, perfect for those in need of a home office. Dont miss the opportunity to make this remarkable home yours!

17. 2023-10-09
    status Pending 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of style and functionality with the Adams floor plan located in the prestigious community of The Pines at Seven Coves. Designed by Centex Homes, this one-story home offers a spacious layout, maximizing every inch of its floor plan. From the sleek kitchen overlooking the family room to the well-utilized closet space in each room, this home combines timeless elegance with modern convenience. Customize your living space by opting for the study, perfect for those in need of a home office. Dont miss the opportunity to make this remarkable home yours!

18. 2023-09-22
    price $249,560 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of style and functionality with the Adams floor plan located in the prestigious community of The Pines at Seven Coves. Designed by Centex Homes, this one-story home offers a spacious layout, maximizing every inch of its floor plan. From the sleek kitchen overlooking the family room to the well-utilized closet space in each room, this home combines timeless elegance with modern convenience. Customize your living space by opting for the study, perfect for those in need of a home office. Dont miss the opportunity to make this remarkable home yours!

19. 2023-08-24
    price $254,560 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of style and functionality with the Adams floor plan located in the prestigious community of The Pines at Seven Coves. Designed by Centex Homes, this one-story home offers a spacious layout, maximizing every inch of its floor plan. From the sleek kitchen overlooking the family room to the well-utilized closet space in each room, this home combines timeless elegance with modern convenience. Customize your living space by opting for the study, perfect for those in need of a home office. Dont miss the opportunity to make this remarkable home yours!

20. 2023-08-15
    price $262,310 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of style and functionality with the Adams floor plan located in the prestigious community of The Pines at Seven Coves. Designed by Centex Homes, this one-story home offers a spacious layout, maximizing every inch of its floor plan. From the sleek kitchen overlooking the family room to the well-utilized closet space in each room, this home combines timeless elegance with modern convenience. Customize your living space by opting for the study, perfect for those in need of a home office. Dont miss the opportunity to make this remarkable home yours!

21. 2023-07-13
    listed $274,310 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of style and functionality with the Adams floor plan located in the prestigious community of The Pines at Seven Coves. Designed by Centex Homes, this one-story home offers a spacious layout, maximizing every inch of its floor plan. From the sleek kitchen overlooking the family room to the well-utilized closet space in each room, this home combines timeless elegance with modern convenience. Customize your living space by opting for the study, perfect for those in need of a home office. Dont miss the opportunity to make this remarkable home yours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,013 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,013 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,013
• − Insurance: −$1,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,211
• Taxable loss: −$4,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in The Pines at Seven Coves is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest cosmetic improvements to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-10-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $249,560 HARMLS
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $254,560 HARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Price Changed $262,310 HARMLS
• 2023-07-13 Listed $274,310 HARMLS

Property tax history

+168.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,013 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.