9106 W Swan Cir · Brentwood, MO 63144

$119,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 675 sqft · Condo public records · 399 Days on market

Built 1950 $176/sqft · 36% below area Est $187k · 36% under $304/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy all of the amenities of Brentwood Forest when you move into this bright and spacious home! This 1 bed/1 bath top-level unit is ready for its new owners! You'll have an open layout, with the living room flowing into the dining room and filled with natural light. The kitchen features a tile backsplash, crown molding, white cabinets, and a convenient stacked washer/dryer. The bedroom has two closets and an en-suite bath with tilework and brass fixtures. You'll be just steps from the community pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, and scenic lake! Located in the heart of Brentwood, you'll also have quick access to shopping and restaurants in the Galleria, Brentwood Promenade and Square, plus nearby highways and parks. Don't miss out on this great opportunity!

Key facts

• $304 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-298/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (3.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Brentwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in MO, #689 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Brentwood (suburban): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #4 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 399 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $119k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 399 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,658
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -36.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-22,718
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-29,184
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63144

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,549/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$304
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $114,616

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1800 S Brentwood Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1164	$1,490	$1.28	1d	19	0.61mi
9305 Manchester Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,018	$1.31	2d	12	1.06mi
72 Van Mark Way Brentwood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,102	$1.41	1d	4	1.09mi
1034 N Rock Hill Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	696	$1,650	$2.37	43d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $304 · $3,648/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 399 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 398 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 397 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 396 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 394 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 393 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 390 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 389 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 388 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $119,000 Active 382 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 382 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 381 DOM
15. 2025-09-04
    price $129,000 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Enjoy all of the amenities of Brentwood Forest when you move into this bright and spacious home! This 1 bed/1 bath top-level unit is ready for its new owners! You'll have an open layout, with the living room flowing into the dining room and filled with natural light. The kitchen features a tile backsplash, crown molding, white cabinets, and a convenient stacked washer/dryer. The bedroom has two closets and an en-suite bath with tilework and brass fixtures. You'll be just steps from the community pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, and scenic lake! Located in the heart of Brentwood, you'll also have quick access to shopping and restaurants in the Galleria, Brentwood Promenade and Square, plus nearby highways and parks. Don't miss out on this great opportunity!

16. 2025-06-04
    price $137,500 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Enjoy all of the amenities of Brentwood Forest when you move into this bright and spacious home! This 1 bed/1 bath top-level unit is ready for its new owners! You'll have an open layout, with the living room flowing into the dining room and filled with natural light. The kitchen features a tile backsplash, crown molding, white cabinets, and a convenient stacked washer/dryer. The bedroom has two closets and an en-suite bath with tilework and brass fixtures. You'll be just steps from the community pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, and scenic lake! Located in the heart of Brentwood, you'll also have quick access to shopping and restaurants in the Galleria, Brentwood Promenade and Square, plus nearby highways and parks. Don't miss out on this great opportunity!

17. 2025-05-15
    status Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Enjoy all of the amenities of Brentwood Forest when you move into this bright and spacious home! This 1 bed/1 bath top-level unit is ready for its new owners! You'll have an open layout, with the living room flowing into the dining room and filled with natural light. The kitchen features a tile backsplash, crown molding, white cabinets, and a convenient stacked washer/dryer. The bedroom has two closets and an en-suite bath with tilework and brass fixtures. You'll be just steps from the community pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, and scenic lake! Located in the heart of Brentwood, you'll also have quick access to shopping and restaurants in the Galleria, Brentwood Promenade and Square, plus nearby highways and parks. Don't miss out on this great opportunity!

18. 1995-12-28
    soldstatus $50,800
19. 1994-06-22
    soldstatus
20. 1994-05-01
    soldstatus $43,000
21. 1994-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,549 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,549 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,549
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − HOA: −$3,648
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$2,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$508
• After-tax cash flow: $210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood
• NCES district ID: 2905880
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,522
• Composite: 57.51/100
• National rank: #1069
• State rank: #4 of 324 in MO

Livability — Brentwood

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #689

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brentwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 9,505
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 9,505
• Household income: $104,438
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.33%
• Current HPI: 207.0145
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $129,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $137,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,800 Public Records
• 1994-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,549 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.