15106 Cypress Green Dr · Houston, TX 77429

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1978 5,388 sqft lot Est $253k · 35% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Investment Property

Key facts

• 5,388 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,522; Lot about 0.12 acres
• HOA & community: Fairwood HOA with annual fee; HOA covers clubhouse and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor); Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 1978; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor; Den on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hamilton Middle (math 65% / reading 67%, grade A-, #92 of 1,662 statewide, top 6%, 1,538 students, 39% FRL); Cy-Fair H S (math 60% / reading 73%, grade B, #186 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 3,425 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 608 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,652
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15106 Cypress Green Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	0mo	$165,000	$108	100
14927 Cypress Green Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+6%)	1mo	$245,000	$152	86
14522 Cypress Valley Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+1%)	7mo	$329,000	$213	72
14519 Cypress Leaf Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+11%)	2mo	$225,000	$133	71
14426 Cypress Ridge Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+1%)	4mo	$260,000	$169	69
14802 Cypress Ridge Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-5%)	15mo	$255,550	$176	68
15111 Cypress Ridge Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-13%)	12mo	$245,000	$184	67
14707 Cypress Valley Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,659 (+9%)	4mo	$245,000	$148	66
15023 Cypress Green Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,680 (+10%)	16mo	$235,000	$140	66
14626 Cypress Falls Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+12%)	6mo	$275,000	$161	60
14519 Cypress Valley Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+7%)	11mo	$269,500	$166	59
14502 Cypress Valley Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+15%)	1mo	$299,900	$171	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,539
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,693
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77429

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 608
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$449 /mo · $5,385/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14600 Huffmeister Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1190	$1,966	$1.65	1d	11	1.05mi
14602 Gearen Ct Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,150	$1.13	44d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,385 · $449/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,385 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$5,385
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,334
• Household income: $119,191
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1264.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.36%
• Current HPI: 232.7267
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,385 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.