17 Whippoorwill Trl · Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1950 6,080 sqft lot $251/sqft · 22% below area Est $276k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is knocking! Unlock the potential in this 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch nestled in a well-established rural setting! With the right updates, this home can truly shine. Enjoy a covered deck perfect for outdoor living and a finished basement that adds valuable flexible space. A fantastic opportunity for buyers ready to create something special—bring your vision and make it your own! This home is full of possibilities and ideal for those looking to customize and add value—don’t miss the chance to transform this property into something exceptional.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Finished basement
• 6,080 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 4 vehicles; No carport
• Utilities: Electric service by Orange & Rockland; Water connected; Septic tank; Trash collection (public); Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Finished full basement; Scuttle attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.3% in Mountain Lodge Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $215k implies a 313% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.31%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,580
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -21.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Wildwood Trl	0.06mi	3/1.0	883 (+3%)	11mo	$255,000	$289	83
22 Claremont Trl	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	836 (-2%)	10mo	$250,000	$299	81
5 Beverly Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	900 (+5%)	3mo	$315,000	$350	80
14 Claremont Trl	0.02mi	3/1.0	911 (+6%)	13mo	$255,000	$280	77
20 Windsor Rd	0.20mi	3/1.0	900 (+5%)	9mo	$284,000	$316	75
3 Sunrise Trl	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	802 (-6%)	6mo	$210,000	$262	72
22 Sylvan Trl	0.30mi	3/1.0	784 (-8%)	4mo	$259,900	$332	68
15 Claremont Trl	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+14%)	8mo	$265,000	$270	62
15 Herbst Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	876 (+2%)	2mo	$339,000	$387	61
59 Orchard Trl	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-1%)	8mo	$217,500	$256	60
5 Orchard Trl	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	963 (+12%)	6mo	$264,500	$275	59
9 Ludwig Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	838 (-2%)	2mo	$285,000	$340	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,813
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $21,755
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$422 /mo · $5,063/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,075

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $639	-5% $578	+0% $517	+5% $456	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $302	-5% $410	+0% $517	+5% $625	+10% $733
Rate	-1.0pp $626	-0.5pp $572	base $517	+0.5pp $462	+1.0pp $405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Edgewood Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	959	$2,400	$2.50	14d	1	0.13mi
357 Mountain Lodge Rd Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	760	$2,000	$2.63	14d	1	0.28mi
32 Cedar Trl Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	825	$2,200	$2.67	24d	1	0.46mi
12 Utopian Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,150	$2.53	14d	1	0.51mi
66 Higgins Trl Blooming Grove, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$1,700	$2.12	14d	1	0.54mi
14 Woodland Cir S Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	14d	1	0.58mi
26 Oakwood Trl S Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	696	$1,750	$2.51	14d	1	0.70mi
25 Gloria Trl Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	835	$2,200	$2.63	14d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $215,000 Active 574-char remark
17. 1984-11-01
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,063 · $422/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,063 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$5,063
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,620
• − Management: −$2,620
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $3,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$739
• After-tax cash flow: $5,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Lodge Park

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #5092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Lodge Park, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+313.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $215,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,063 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.