5 Duncan St · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37210

$309,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2004 6,969 sqft lot Est $356k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 and 5 Duncan St must be purchased together . Incredible opportunity in prime location for an investor and first time home buyers, New construction all around the area. Short drive to Downtown Nashville, Soccer Stadium, 12th South, Titan Stadium. Owner is also selling 3 Duncan St. Sold As Is, seller will not make any repairs. . Buyer and buyer's agent to confirm all important information.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 97 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured on land residential home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: 50 x 150 lot; 0.16-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes approximately 15 x 13, 10 x 9, and 10 x 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; No finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcgavock High (math 2% / reading 9%, grade F, #308 of 332 statewide, top 93%, 2,098 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,928/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1435% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $310k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $356,048
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135A Fain St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	18mo	$330,000	$275	76
67 Maury St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+7%)	10mo	$330,000	$251	65
64 Cannon St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+8%)	19mo	$340,000	$257	60
115 Fain St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,084 (-12%)	16mo	$319,900	$295	58
85 Donelson St	0.11mi	3/3.0	1,368 (+11%)	18mo	$395,000	$289	58
70 Maury St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,368 (+11%)	19mo	$395,000	$289	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-26,173
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,803
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37210

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,928 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,484/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,377

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $523	+0% $435	+5% $347	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $319	+0% $435	+5% $551	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $591	-0.5pp $514	base $435	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
65 Lindsley Ave Unit 1051666P Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1194	$9,716	$8.14	21d	1	0.64mi
225 Walden Village Ln Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,899	$2.14	2d	16	0.70mi
138 Academy Sq Nashville, TN	2.0	1.5	1110	$1,600	$1.44	24d	1	0.75mi
4 Academy Pl Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0–2.0	946	$2,887	$3.05	2d	19	0.76mi
1031B 2nd Ave S Unit B Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1480	$3,400	$2.30	24d	1	0.80mi
1211 Davidson St Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1450	$3,500	$2.41	24d	1	0.84mi
115 Middleton St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,490	$2.61	2d	22	0.85mi
1300 4th Ave S Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0–3.0	969	$3,750	$3.87	2d	77	0.92mi
1111 Glenview Dr Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	1090	$2,195	$2.01	17d	1	0.93mi
607 Lenore St Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1248	$1,967	$1.58	2d	3	0.93mi
1414 4th Ave S Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$3,445	$3.59	2d	53	0.94mi
776 Lenore St Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0	755	$1,299	$1.72	14d	4	0.95mi
1125 4th Ave S Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	808	$4,125	$5.10	2d	27	0.96mi
802 S 6th St Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,751	$1.68	15d	6	0.97mi
700 Dew St Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$1,475	$1.81	4d	5	0.99mi
30 Peabody St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.5	1073	$5,732	$5.34	2d	135	1.01mi
400 Herron Dr Unit 21 Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,975	$1.94	17d	1	1.03mi
400 Herron Dr #418 Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,800	$1.64	24d	1	1.03mi
1210 Martin St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$5,211	$6.67	3d	46	1.07mi
508 Hamilton Ave Unit A Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	8d	1	1.10mi
825 6th Ave S Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$3,975	$3.88	3d	115	1.16mi
622 Merritt Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0–3.0	1187	$4,109	$3.46	3d	18	1.19mi
517 Moore Ave Unit B Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	24d	1	1.20mi
611 S 12th St Unit B Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,899	$1.90	24d	1	1.22mi
611 S 14th St Unit C Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	812	$1,600	$1.97	24d	1	1.24mi
611 S 14th St Unit C Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	812	$1,600	$1.97	14d	1	1.24mi
516 Lea Ave Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$4,684	$5.34	2d	11	1.25mi
641 Division St Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	961	$3,179	$3.31	3d	30	1.32mi
301 Demonbreun St #1716 Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,995	$2.75	24d	1	1.35mi
715 Merritt Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$3,703	$4.48	2d	23	1.36mi
645 Division St Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1112	$6,362	$5.72	2d	65	1.37mi
635 7th Ave S Nashville, TN	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1634	$5,995	$3.67	24d	3	1.39mi
1301 Lebanon Pike Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$2,647	$2.96	2d	44	1.39mi
635 7th Ave S #212 Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	979	$3,495	$3.57	24d	1	1.43mi
620 8th Ave S Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$4,059	$4.70	2d	30	1.43mi
700 Hamilton Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	697	$3,223	$4.62	2d	115	1.44mi
1609 Shelby Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	1084	$2,200	$2.03	5d	1	1.48mi
803 Division St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	972	$4,336	$4.46	3d	36	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $309,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $309,900 Active
16. 2026-02-25
    historical $309,900
17. 2025-07-25
    historical
18. 2025-07-14
    price $287,900
19. 2025-06-05
    status Active
20. 2025-05-09
    price $289,900
21. 2025-04-07
    price $299,900
22. 2025-02-12
    listed $309,900 Active
23. 2007-01-03
    soldstatus $150,000
24. 2005-08-30
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$717/yr (+$60/mo · 48.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$1,484
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,811
• − Management: −$2,811
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable income: $105
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25
• After-tax cash flow: $5,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 680,067 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 17,725
• Household income: $50,284
• Rent vs Own: 69.7% rent · 30.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1435.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.00%
• Current HPI: 379.1401
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+209.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $309,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Coming Soon $309,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $287,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $289,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $299,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Listed $309,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,484 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.