5061 Nunes Rd #25 · Keyes, CA 95382

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this AFFORDABLE rent space and well maintained this Mobil home is move in ready, situated in a family park all ages are welcome, pet friendly, open floor plan, cute and cozy, the attached covered deck cozy enhances the home appeal, easy access to high way 99, shopping center, gas school with the sense of country living.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Country living
• Shopping center

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 99
• SHOPPING CENTER
• COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount listed as $631
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Individual gas meter; Public water; Public sewer; Electric: 220 volts and other
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Updated/Remodeled; Built in 1973; Skirted with wood
• Construction: Metal roof; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Storage area; Fenced yard; Regular-shaped lot; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Simulated wood; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans; Multi-unit heating; Multi-unit cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Great room living area; Breakfast nook / dining-living combo; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.59%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,368
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5526 Keith Ct	0.63mi	2/1.0	696 (+4%)	10mo	$57,500	$83	56
5538 Keith Ct	0.63mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	14mo	$40,000	$56	47
5548 Keith Ct #7	0.63mi	1/1.0 (-1)	620 (-8%)	12mo	$43,000	$69	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $53,339
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $125,210
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95382

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $1,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,112	-5% $1,086	+0% $1,060	+5% $1,034	+10% $1,008
Rent	-10% $902	-5% $981	+0% $1,060	+5% $1,139	+10% $1,218
Rate	-1.0pp $1,098	-0.5pp $1,079	base $1,060	+0.5pp $1,041	+1.0pp $1,021

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,942
• After-tax cash flow: $9,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This affordable rent space is move-in ready and well-maintained, with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping the yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Upgrading the flooring — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,083
• Household income: $95,282
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 6% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -312.66%
• Current HPI: 279.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B