2449 Forest Shadows Dr · Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO 63136

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1973 2,160 sqft lot $83/sqft · 22% below area Est $90k · 22% under $225/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community amenities
• Pool

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED FRONT PATIO
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY AREA
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#592 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.42%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,589
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -21.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2462 Forest Shadows Dr	0.04mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	10mo	$94,900	$113	90
2453 Forest Shadows Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	14mo	$73,000	$87	88
11140 Towering Pines Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	21mo	$94,900	$113	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $32,183
• Equity at exit: $34,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $89,917
• Equity at exit: $55,896

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,072/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $304	+0% $284	+5% $264	+10% $245
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $234	+0% $284	+5% $334	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $302	base $284	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	0.53mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	44d	1	0.68mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	44d	3	0.80mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	23d	1	0.90mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	18d	1	0.97mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.99mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	0.99mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	15d	1	1.01mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	8d	1	1.07mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	23d	1	1.13mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	5d	1	1.17mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	3d	1	1.18mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	24d	1	1.18mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	1.22mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $225 · $2,700/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

2. 2026-05-06
   price $69,900 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

3. 2026-04-02
   status Active 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

4. 2026-03-08
   status Pending 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

5. 2026-02-18
   price $74,900 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

6. 2026-01-05
   status Active 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

7. 2026-01-05
   price $79,900 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

8. 2025-09-05
   listed $84,900 Active 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo that is move-in ready! Enter through a private fenced front patio. Living room is spacious offering beautiful flooring, vaulted ceilings and tons of natural light from the large front window. Just off the living room is a cozy dining area that leads into the kitchen. Kitchen is complete with beautiful white cabinets, an opening to see into the living room and a nice-sized pantry. Both bedrooms bring tons of space with large closets for all your storage needs. The bathroom has an updated vanity, mirror and lighting. An in-unit laundry area is a nice convenient bonus. Community amenities included are a clubhouse, pool, and walking trails. With many updates in this home and being located close to shopping centers, restaurants and easy access to highways make this home even more desirable. Be sure to make your appointment today to check this one out!

9. 2025-08-18
   price $84,900
10. 2025-07-09
    listed $89,900 Active
11. 2025-04-29
    status Active
12. 2025-04-17
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2025-04-03
    price $90,000
14. 2025-03-07
    listed $94,000 Active
15. 2024-11-27
    historical
16. 2024-11-05
    price $70,000
17. 2024-09-16
    price $74,000
18. 2024-09-05
    listed $75,000 Active
19. 2024-08-28
    historical
20. 2003-03-05
    soldstatus $52,500
21. 1996-03-05
    soldstatus $39,000
22. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus
24. 1986-04-01
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,072
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − HOA: −$2,700
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,614
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$627
• After-tax cash flow: $2,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bellefontaine Neighbors

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #20944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+111.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $74,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-29 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Listed $94,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-27 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $74,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-05 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 1996-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1986-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,072 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.