The Messina Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$243,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Messina plan is a 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, kitchen open to family room, dining area, and 2-car garage. It features a convenient kitchen island with space for high-top seating, spacious walk-in closet, oversized family room, and dedicated laundry room.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Kitchen island
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED FAMILY ROOM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $243,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,936.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,059 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,936
• List price: $243,000
• Delta: -5.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15623 Tranquil Pines St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,697 (0%)	1mo	$254,990	$150	80
16771 Country Roots Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+3%)	0mo	$279,990	$160	70
16787 Country Roots Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+3%)	1mo	$274,990	$157	68
16891 Needlepoint Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-7%)	1mo	$224,900	$142	68
16916 Rich Pines Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-7%)	2mo	$202,995	$129	68
15557 Granger Green Way	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+3%)	1mo	$266,990	$153	67
14308 Ash Tree Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,932 (+14%)	2mo	$269,900	$140	66
16807 Country Roots Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+6%)	2mo	$277,990	$155	62
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-11%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	61
17104 Coulter Pine Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (-7%)	2mo	$234,600	$148	58
14166 Granger Pointe Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (-8%)	2mo	$260,040	$167	52
14158 Granger Pointe Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (-8%)	2mo	$254,040	$163	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-52,512
• Equity at exit: $38,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-57,693
• Equity at exit: $22,302

Cash invested: $72,222 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,869/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,256

Max offer price $232,125

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-89	+0% $-178	+5% $-268	+10% $-357
Rent	-10% $-339	-5% $-259	+0% $-178	+5% $-98	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-113	base $-178	+0.5pp $-245	+1.0pp $-313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,484
• Closing costs: $7,738
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	0d	13	0.28mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	45d	1	1.28mi
17892 Brown Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	21d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $243,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $243,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $243,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $243,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $243,000 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    The Messina plan is a 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, kitchen open to family room, dining area, and 2-car garage. It features a convenient kitchen island with space for high-top seating, spacious walk-in closet, oversized family room, and dedicated laundry room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,448
• − Property taxes: −$3,869
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$7,504
• Taxable loss: −$6,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,594
• After-tax cash flow: $-546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Messina Plan is a well-maintained single-family home with good condition and potential for further enhancement through cosmetic updates and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Paint interior trim — Fresh paint in trim areas improves the home's appearance and value.
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and rental value.
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern light fixtures improve the home's curb appeal and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive to buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Paint interior trim — Fresh paint in trim areas improves the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern light fixtures improve the home's curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $243,000 Zillow