447 S Meadowood Ln · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $148/sqft · 16% above area Est $203k · 16% over ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLAR, SOLAR, SOLAR! Home in Premier 55+ Community. This stunning, move-in-ready home features tasteful updates throughout. The kitchen boasts gorgeous quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, making it a chef's dream. Enjoy cozy nights by the fireplace or unwind in the Arizona room with plenty of natural light. Additional upgrades include a new roof and water heater installed in 2024, ensuring years of worry-free living. The Nest thermostat and reverse osmosis system provide comfort and convenience at every turn. clubhouse, fitness center, yearly heated pool & spa, dog parks, pickle ball courts, and much much more.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Arizona room
• Water heater

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OWNED SOLAR
• ARIZONA ROOM
• NEW ROOF
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.2% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Village Meadows Elementary School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #415 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 394 students, 56% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 180 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.42%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,292
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: 15.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
559 S Meadowood Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+0%)	6mo	$239,900	$151	91
426 S Taylors Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,585 (0%)	4mo	$130,000	$82	90
652 S Taylors Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+0%)	2mo	$256,000	$161	89
606 S Chase St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+0%)	6mo	$271,961	$171	89
760 S Chase St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+0%)	3mo	$265,000	$167	88
258 S Taylors Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+1%)	4mo	$219,000	$137	87
232 S Clubhouse Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-6%)	2mo	$190,000	$127	81
545 S Meadowood Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-7%)	7mo	$200,000	$136	75
434 S Meadowood Ln	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-11%)	4mo	$182,500	$130	72
301 S Clubhouse Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-7%)	6mo	$217,000	$147	71
231 S Clubhouse Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-11%)	3mo	$200,000	$142	65
216 N Martha Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-8%)	7mo	$180,000	$124	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,194
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-30,899
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,237/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,919

Max offer price $234,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $309	+0% $242	+5% $176	+10% $109
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $154	+0% $242	+5% $330	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $302	base $242	+0.5pp $181	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 S Clubhouse Ln Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1574	$2,750	$1.75	45d	3	0.13mi
5396 Desert Shadows Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,550	$1.14	45d	1	1.04mi
5478 Waco Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	45d	1	1.07mi
5330 Sonora St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,425	$1.07	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $234,900 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $234,900 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $234,900 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,900 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,900 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $234,900 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $234,900 Active 182 DOM
18. 2026-03-01
    price $234,900 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    SOLAR, SOLAR, SOLAR! Home in Premier 55+ Community. This stunning, move-in-ready home features tasteful updates throughout. The kitchen boasts gorgeous quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, making it a chef's dream. Enjoy cozy nights by the fireplace or unwind in the Arizona room with plenty of natural light. Additional upgrades include a new roof and water heater installed in 2024, ensuring years of worry-free living. The Nest thermostat and reverse osmosis system provide comfort and convenience at every turn. clubhouse, fitness center, yearly heated pool & spa, dog parks, pickle ball courts, and much much more.

19. 2025-11-26
    listed $238,000 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    SOLAR, SOLAR, SOLAR! Home in Premier 55+ Community. This stunning, move-in-ready home features tasteful updates throughout. The kitchen boasts gorgeous quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, making it a chef's dream. Enjoy cozy nights by the fireplace or unwind in the Arizona room with plenty of natural light. Additional upgrades include a new roof and water heater installed in 2024, ensuring years of worry-free living. The Nest thermostat and reverse osmosis system provide comfort and convenience at every turn. clubhouse, fitness center, yearly heated pool & spa, dog parks, pickle ball courts, and much much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,237 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,237 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$2,237
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $3,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home in a 55+ community features tasteful updates throughout, including a new roof and water heater, and is ready for a new owner to enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes and increases value
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $234,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $238,000 ARMLS