34150 Estates Ln · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$143,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1992 4,262 sqft lot Est $174k · 18% under $196/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market due to the buyer’s failure to perform—giving you a second chance at this wonderful home! Affordable & Amenity-Rich Living in Timber Lake Estates! Discover the perfect blend of value and comfort in this charming home, just a short commute from Tampa. This private retreat offers an open-concept living and dining area, along with 2 cozy bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms—ideal for easy living and effortless entertaining. Curl up with a good read or sip your morning coffee in the sunlit Florida Room—a perfect space to relax and recharge. Laminate flooring flows through each of the wet areas: the Kitchen, Bathrooms, and Laundry Room. Outside, you&rsquo

Key facts

• Private back yard
• Florida room
• Carport for parking

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• CARPORT FOR PARKING
• LARGE STORAGE UTILITY SHED
• UNIQUE LOT
• PRIVATE BACK YARD
• NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoning: RMH; Lot size approximately 0.1 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Monthly condo/association fees: $196; Total monthly fees listed as $196 and total annual fees listed as $2,352; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association: Barbara King) with monthly condo/maintenance fees of $196; Association approval required; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, basketball court, shuffleboard court, gated community, recreation facilities, storage; association fees include private road and water; Community features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, playground, pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Private maintained paved asphalt road
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Residential property; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.92%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,880
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3141 Great Oak St	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,226 (-5%)	1mo	$125,000	$102	82
3045 Shady Creek Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,214 (-6%)	6mo	$130,000	$107	81
34334 Timberland Blvd	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,357 (+5%)	8mo	$170,000	$125	74
3025 Hickory Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,352 (+5%)	14mo	$153,000	$113	72
3145 Hickory Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-11%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	68
3125 Briar St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+12%)	1mo	$170,000	$118	67
3041 Short Leaf St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (-9%)	11mo	$157,500	$135	62
3010 Whispering Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-14%)	15mo	$172,000	$156	55
3105 Briar St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-13%)	21mo	$218,000	$195	50
3324 Carnation Ln	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-7%)	19mo	$170,000	$142	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,460
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $27,490
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$179 /mo · $2,145/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$196
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2883 Peony Prairie Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,099	$1.25	11d	1	0.15mi
34276 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	24d	1	0.17mi
2839 Maiden Grass Isle Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,600	$1.68	24d	1	0.19mi
34350 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,350	$1.40	5d	1	0.22mi
33801 Jasmine Star Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,300	$1.52	24d	1	0.48mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.59mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	5d	1	0.62mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	24d	1	0.63mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	12d	1	0.63mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	16d	1	0.63mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	2d	1	0.68mi
2350 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1555	$2,500	$1.61	24d	1	0.69mi
2313 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1555	$2,000	$1.29	5d	1	0.71mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	16d	1	0.72mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.76mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	24d	1	0.80mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	24d	1	0.84mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	22d	1	0.84mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	11d	1	0.84mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	14d	1	0.85mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	5d	1	0.95mi
2081 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,200	$1.42	18d	1	0.95mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.15mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	24d	1	1.21mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	1.21mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	24d	1	1.32mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,200	$1.33	5d	1	1.37mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $196 · $2,352/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,000 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,000 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,000 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,000 Active 355 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $143,000 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,000 Active 349 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $143,000 Active 348 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $143,000 Active 347 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $143,000 Active 344 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $143,000 Active 343 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $143,000 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,000 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,000 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    status Active
15. 2026-05-15
    price $143,000
16. 2026-03-23
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-11
    status Active
18. 2026-02-28
    status Pending
19. 2025-12-30
    price $139,900
20. 2025-09-29
    price $143,900
21. 2025-04-21
    listed $146,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,145
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − HOA: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $4,933
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $5,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $143,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $143,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Listed $146,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.