2461 Bethel Ln · Bowling Green, KY 42101

$131,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1935 1.01 ac lot $112/sqft · 44% below area Est $236k · 44% under ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With a NEW metal roof, siding, and gutters opportunity awaits with this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home situated on approximately 1.01 acres. This property is being sold as-is and offers great potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to add their own vision. The home sits on a spacious lot with two out door buildings, providing room for outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located with easy access to Bowling Green amenities, shopping, dining, and major roadways. With some updates and repairs this property could be a great addition to an investment portfolio or project for someone looking to create their own space.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Metal roof
• Spacious lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• OUT DOOR BUILDINGS
• SPACIOUS LOT
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $131k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 592 active listings in the ZIP; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $906 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,993 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.26%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,522
• List price: $131,000
• Delta: -44.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3723 Sunnyside-gotts Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,107 (-6%)	11mo	$197,500	$178	53
3056 Bethel Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,339 (+14%)	5mo	$248,000	$185	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-12,376
• Equity at exit: $19,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,055
• Equity at exit: $11,326

Cash invested: $36,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42101

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 592
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$687
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $465/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $988

Max offer price $131,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $228	+0% $191	+5% $154	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $143	+0% $191	+5% $240	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $225	base $191	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,750
• Closing costs: $3,930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $131,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $131,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $131,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $131,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $131,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $131,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $131,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $131,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $131,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $131,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $131,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $131,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $131,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $131,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $131,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $131,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-04-26
    price $137,900 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    With a NEW metal roof, siding, and gutters opportunity awaits with this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home situated on approximately 1.01 acres. This property is being sold as-is and offers great potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to add their own vision. The home sits on a spacious lot with two out door buildings, providing room for outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located with easy access to Bowling Green amenities, shopping, dining, and major roadways. With some updates and repairs this property could be a great addition to an investment portfolio or project for someone looking to create their own space.

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $145,000 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    With a NEW metal roof, siding, and gutters opportunity awaits with this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home situated on approximately 1.01 acres. This property is being sold as-is and offers great potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to add their own vision. The home sits on a spacious lot with two out door buildings, providing room for outdoor space, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located with easy access to Bowling Green amenities, shopping, dining, and major roadways. With some updates and repairs this property could be a great addition to an investment portfolio or project for someone looking to create their own space.

19. 2026-02-18
    price $140,000
20. 2025-09-17
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$662/yr (+$55/mo · 142.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,338
• − Property taxes: −$465
• − Insurance: −$655
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,811
• Taxable income: $129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31
• After-tax cash flow: $2,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County
• NCES district ID: 2105730
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5958
• State rank: #48 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bowling Green

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #12782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 129,408 people
• City population: 129,408
• Metro: Bowling Green, KY
• Population (ZIP): 65,421
• Household income: $48,217
• Rent vs Own: 55.3% rent · 44.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3855.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,620 people
• By 2030: 155,977 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 179,381 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 203,713 · +40.9%
• By 2075: 267,291 · +84.8%
• By 2100: 314,019 · +117.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% American 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 37.0% · R 61.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+16.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.34%
• Current HPI: 277.6554
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Bowling Green, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $137,900 SCKMLSKY
• 2026-03-27 Listed $145,000 SCKMLSKY
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $140,000 RASKMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $155,000 RASKMLS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $465 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.