1849 NW 83rd Ter · West Little River, FL 33147

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1946 5,628 sqft lot Est $335k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT POTENTIAL TO BUY THIS PROPERTY THATS SELLING FOR LAND VALUE ONLY.

Key facts

• 5,628 sq ft lot
• Built 1946

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-411/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in West Little River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#152 in FL, #2,286 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Henry W. Mack/West Little River K-8 Center (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,073 of 2,144 statewide, top 97%, 415 students, 72% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #546 of 571 statewide, top 96%, 403 students, 69% FRL); Miami Central Senior High School (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,398 students, 74% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $199k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $152/mo; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,942 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.54%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,720
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7762 NW 14 Ct	0.55mi	2/1.0	708 (+11%)	7mo	$370,000	$523	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-40,384
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-60,940
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33147

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,080/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,154

Max offer price $192,942

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $22	+0% $-34	+5% $-91	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-118	+0% $-34	+5% $49	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $16	base $-34	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-01-09
   historical
2. 2025-10-06
   historical
3. 2025-09-30
   listed $199,000
4. 2025-04-17
   listed $350,000 Active
5. 2024-05-20
   historical
6. 2023-11-20
   listed $370,000 Active
7. 2022-05-24
   price $1,920
8. 2022-05-04
   historical
9. 2022-02-16
   listed $250,000 Active
10. 2021-01-14
    soldstatus $85,000
11. 2010-05-06
    soldstatus $25,000
12. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,080 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,080 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,080
• − Insurance: −$2,820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$854
• After-tax cash flow: $442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Little River

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #152
• US rank: #2286

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Little River, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 81,393
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,419
• Household income: $50,704
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2419.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 46% Two or more races 22% White 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 24% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 50% French/Haitian/Cajun 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.84%
• Current HPI: 642.2677
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1890.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $199,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $350,000 MARMLS
• 2024-05-20 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Listed $370,000 MARMLS
• 2022-05-24 Price Changed $1,920 RENT.
• 2022-05-04 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2022-02-16 Listed $250,000 MARMLS
• 2021-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,080 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.