710 Fifth St · Natalia, TX 78059

$78,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 273 Days on market

Built 1944 7,840 sqft lot $90/sqft · 20% below area Est $114k · 32% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Incredible Potential of This Hidden Gem in Natalia, Texas! This property offers the perfect opportunity for buyers seeking a home with endless possibilities. The house is ready for your personal touch, whether you envision renovating it into your dream home, creating a profitable fix-and-flip, generating rental income, or designing a cozy retreat. With a spacious lot and tremendous potential, this is a rare find just waiting for you to unlock its full value and make it your own!

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1944
• Listed 273 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 1.3% in Natalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#821 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Natalia ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #735 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.68%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,466
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: -31.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Fifth	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-9%)	9mo	$49,000	$63	70
415 Aubrey St	0.06mi	3/1.0	936 (+8%)	20mo	$25,999	$28	66
102 4th	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (+4%)	1mo	$90,000	$100	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $23,504
• Equity at exit: $31,974

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $63,576
• Equity at exit: $46,990

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78059

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $976/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $662

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $289	+0% $267	+5% $245	+10% $223
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $228	+0% $267	+5% $307	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $287	base $267	+0.5pp $247	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 County Road 6715 Natalia, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,000	$0.99	44d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $78,000 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 271 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 270 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 269 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 268 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $78,000 Active 265 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,000 Active 261 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,000 Active 260 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $78,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 254 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 253 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    price $78,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Discover the Incredible Potential of This Hidden Gem in Natalia, Texas! This property offers the perfect opportunity for buyers seeking a home with endless possibilities. The house is ready for your personal touch, whether you envision renovating it into your dream home, creating a profitable fix-and-flip, generating rental income, or designing a cozy retreat. With a spacious lot and tremendous potential, this is a rare find just waiting for you to unlock its full value and make it your own!

18. 2025-09-20
    listed $85,000 New 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Discover the Incredible Potential of This Hidden Gem in Natalia, Texas! This property offers the perfect opportunity for buyers seeking a home with endless possibilities. The house is ready for your personal touch, whether you envision renovating it into your dream home, creating a profitable fix-and-flip, generating rental income, or designing a cozy retreat. With a spacious lot and tremendous potential, this is a rare find just waiting for you to unlock its full value and make it your own!

19. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus
20. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus
21. 2022-11-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,427 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$452/yr (+$38/mo · 46.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$976
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $2,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $2,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natalia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832130
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,941
• Composite: 19.86/100
• National rank: #8692
• State rank: #735 of 826 in TX

Livability — Natalia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #821
• US rank: #14875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natalia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,139

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 27% White 27% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Current HPI: 231.2357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $78,000 LERA
• 2025-09-20 Listed $85,000 LERA
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $976 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.