2502 Carnation Cir · Scissors, TX 78537

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,874 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1990 8,749 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced with repairs and updates in mind, this home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate and make the space their own. Featuring a spacious layout and plenty of potential, the property is ready for updates and personal touches to bring it back to life. Property sold "as-is". Buyer and/or buyer's agent responsible for verifying all pertinent information deemed relevant by the prospective buyer, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, utilities, taxes, zoning, permitting, condition, school zones, HOAs, etc. FINAL CALL FOR OFFERS!!! All offers due 5/31/2026 by 5:00 PM Central.

Key facts

• 8,749 sq ft lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.2009 acres (8,749.9 sq ft); Directions: From Expressway 83, head south on Val Verde Road, continue south past Business 83, then turn east onto Carnation Circle. Property will be on your right.
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: City sewer
• Home design: Living area source: Appraiser
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 2,814 square feet
• Exterior features: Chain link and wood fencing; Patio; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; No conveying appliances
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countertops; No window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,265 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: C Stainke El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 588 students, 96% FRL); A P Solis Middle (math 8% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 666 students, 93% FRL); Donna H S (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 2,095 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 48% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.33%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $77,269
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $209,666
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78537

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $100,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-11
   listed $100,000 Active
9. 2024-07-25
   soldstatus
10. 2010-01-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $3,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Scissors

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1265
• US rank: #22024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 51,346

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 49% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.30%
• Current HPI: 243.3933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $100,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+24.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,712 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.