Is 12236 Lexington Hts in Willis, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.7% cap rate and $-424/mo modeled cash flow at a $285,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 12236 Lexington Hts?

The modeled cap rate is 4.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,331/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.47

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.8/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.3/10.0
Rent growth +2.0/5.0
DSCR +1.5/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$285,990

12236 Lexington Hts · Willis, TX 77318

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $66/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Dawson floor plan offers a spacious and versatile two-story design with 2,129 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space. Featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this home provides the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and style. The open-concept main floor creates a warm and inviting atmosphere, connecting the kitchen, dining, and family areas- ideal for entertaining or spending quality time together. The modern kitchen includes abundant cabinetry, ample counter space, and a central island, making it a perfect hub for everyday meals and gatherings. A first-floor bedroom and full bathroom add flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite serves as a private retreat with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath featuring dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a secondary bathroom provide plenty of room for family or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room and thoughtfully designed storage areas enhance daily convenience. With its open living spaces, private upstairs retreat, and flexible layout, the Dawson floor plan is ideal for growing families seeking both comfort and versatility in a modern, efficient home design.

Key facts

Quality cabinets
Quartz counter tops
Ensuite bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $286k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-424 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (10.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (18.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $233k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $233,115 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.73% ✗
Cap rate: 4.70%
Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
DSCR: 0.75
GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $318,241
List price: $285,990
Delta: -10.13%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12292 Lexington Hts	0.00mi	5/3.5	2,129 (0%)	1mo	$285,990	$134	100
11650 Ruffian Dr	0.10mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-11%)	0mo	$244,990	$129	72
12276 Lexington Heights Dr	0.00mi	5/2.0	1,818 (-15%)	0mo	$278,990	$153	69
12219 Danza Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,125 (-0%)	0mo	$314,358	$148	66
11679 Ruffian Dr	0.27mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-11%)	1mo	$253,990	$134	64
12128 Alydar Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,235 (+5%)	1mo	$319,990	$143	64
12227 Danza Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,084 (-2%)	0mo	$309,982	$149	62
11934 Wisteria Meadows Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,003 (-6%)	0mo	$279,900	$140	59
11757 Whirlaway Dr	0.51mi	5/3.0	2,416 (+14%)	0mo	$358,725	$148	52
12223 Danza Dr	0.57mi	5/3.0	2,416 (+14%)	0mo	$349,345	$145	49
12247 Danza Dr	0.60mi	5/2.5	2,416 (+14%)	1mo	$319,748	$132	45
11826 Serena's Song	0.62mi	6/2.5 (+1)	2,349 (+10%)	2mo	$274,990	$117	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.6%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-85,309
Equity at exit: $47,451

10-year hold

IRR: -49.8%
Equity multiple: -0.52×
Total profit: $-135,126
Equity at exit: $27,516

Cash invested: $89,107 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 40 active · 26 under contract
Months of supply: 9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $294,990 ($151/sqft)
Median days on market: 67 d
This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

Home prices YoY: -32.7%
Rents YoY: -2.1%
Active inventory: 1387
Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,331 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,669
Tax est. 1.5%: −$398 /mo · $4,774/yr
Insurance: −$133
HOA: −$66
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
Net cashflow: $-424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,867

Max offer price $256,933

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-314	+0% $-424	+5% $-534	+10% $-644
Rent	-10% $-608	-5% $-516	+0% $-424	+5% $-332	+10% $-240
Rate	-1.0pp $-263	-0.5pp $-343	base $-424	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $79,560
Closing costs: $9,547
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community managed by ICM ManagementAnnual association fee of $795

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: PrewiredSmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder constructionNew constructionSlab foundation
Construction: Brick and cement sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: FenceSprinkler/irrigationPorchPrivate yardBack yard fencingPorch

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveTankless water heater
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor)Bedroom (Second floor) — 13x11Bedroom (Second floor) — 11x10Bedroom (Second floor) — 10x10Bedroom (First floor) — 11x10
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Has heatingHas cooling
Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryQuartz countertopsKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $285,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $285,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $285,990 Active 37 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $285,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $285,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $285,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $285,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $285,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $285,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $285,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $285,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $285,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $285,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $285,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $285,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $285,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $285,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $285,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $285,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $285,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $285,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $285,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $285,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $285,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $285,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $285,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $285,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $285,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $285,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $285,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $285,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-06-30

days on marketlisting id $285,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $285,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $285,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $285,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $285,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $285,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $285,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $285,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $285,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $285,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $285,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $285,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $285,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $285,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $285,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $285,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $285,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $285,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $285,990 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,974
− Mortgage interest: −$17,826
− Property taxes: −$4,774
− Insurance: −$1,591
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
− Management: −$2,238
− HOA: −$792
− Depreciation: −$9,258
Taxable loss: −$10,743

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,578
After-tax cash flow: $-2,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern design and ample living space. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and replacing it with hardwood or tile would increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Clean the gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the home's appearance. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Willis ISD
NCES district ID: 4845900
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $57,828
Composite: 32.32/100
National rank: #5746
State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

Score: 62/100
State rank: #933
US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 38,421
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 20,792
Household income: $92,415
Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
Current HPI: 236.256
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-29 Listed $285,990 HARMLS
2026-05-14 Listed $285,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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