3021 W 18th St · Jacksonville, FL 32254

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1950 8,712 sqft lot Est $119k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Well-kept family home located in the desirable Paxon area on a spacious corner lot with beautifully maintained landscaping. This inviting home offers 3 bedrooms, with the third bedroom currently used as a cozy sitting area--perfect for a home office, flex space, or easily converted back to a bedroom. Enjoy a dedicated dining area, fully equipped kitchen, and enclosed patio, An excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, small families, or those looking to downsize without sacrificing comfort and outdoor space. If you're searching for an affordable home in North Jacksonville with charm, flexibility, and a prime corner lot location, this one is a must-see.

Key facts

• Spacious corner lot
• Enclosed patio
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• PRIME CORNER LOT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car carport
• Utilities: Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential use
• Exterior features: Back yard with full chain-link fencing; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,351/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 882% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $159k implies a 571% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,083 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,028
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3032 W 16th St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+8%)	8mo	$99,000	$84	76
2118 Detroit St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,029 (-6%)	1mo	$170,000	$165	70
3033 W 15th St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-7%)	12mo	$80,000	$78	68
2952 W 8th St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,119 (+2%)	3mo	$95,000	$85	66
2904 W 16th St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+11%)	9mo	$89,000	$73	64
3186 W 20th St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+11%)	4mo	$221,900	$184	62
3417 Madge St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,098 (+0%)	10mo	$70,000	$64	56
2156 Allandale Cir N	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	941 (-14%)	6mo	$88,100	$94	52
2846 W 8th St	0.58mi	3/1.0	929 (-15%)	2mo	$133,500	$144	46
1630 Detroit St	0.62mi	3/2.0	976 (-11%)	4mo	$106,000	$109	46
2024 Prospect St W	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,233 (+13%)	12mo	$169,000	$137	40
3510 Washingtonian St	0.74mi	3/1.0	941 (-14%)	13mo	$170,000	$181	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.41% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $26,997
• Equity at exit: $75,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $80,893
• Equity at exit: $118,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32254

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3004 W 16th St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,526	$1.05	23d	1	0.13mi
3078 W 15th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1128	$1,200	$1.06	23d	1	0.24mi
3138 W 15th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	734	$1,150	$1.57	7d	1	0.29mi
3138 W 15th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	734	$1,150	$1.57	23d	1	0.29mi
2854 Wickwire St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	948	$1,300	$1.37	4d	1	0.37mi
2939 W 11th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1086	$1,295	$1.19	23d	1	0.38mi
2693 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	23d	1	0.59mi
2661 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1031	$1,350	$1.31	23d	1	0.64mi
5355 New Kings Rd Unit 21 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	4d	1	0.68mi
2939 W 6th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,225	$0.97	1d	1	0.69mi
1612 Alfen St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	945	$1,113	$1.18	7d	1	0.69mi
2902 W 5th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,050	$0.76	7d	1	0.78mi
2965 Sunset St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,375	$1.30	4d	1	0.80mi
2965 Sunset St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,375	$1.30	7d	1	0.80mi
2540 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	854	$1,295	$1.52	14d	1	0.80mi
3101 3rd Street Cir N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,150	$1.32	7d	1	0.89mi
1227 Dena St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1033	$1,325	$1.28	23d	1	0.92mi
1305 Melson Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,399	$1.14	20d	1	0.94mi
2913 W 2nd St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,000	$1.39	1d	1	0.95mi
3055 2nd Street Cir Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,340	$1.28	17d	1	0.96mi
5141 Shenandoah Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	1d	4	0.98mi
5239 Potomac Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,432	$1.03	7d	1	1.00mi
2344 W 18th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1129	$1,425	$1.26	14d	1	1.01mi
2345 W 15th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,400	$1.26	23d	1	1.03mi
2862 W 1st St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	14d	1	1.04mi
2862 W 1st St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	4d	1	1.04mi
2852 W 1st St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	7d	1	1.04mi
3516 Penton St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	1.08mi
3034 Detroit Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,399	$1.08	23d	1	1.09mi
2851 Sophia St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	846	$1,000	$1.18	23d	3	1.11mi
5236 Wabash Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	712	$999	$1.40	20d	1	1.12mi
3326 W 1st St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	791	$995	$1.26	23d	1	1.14mi
5227 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,450	$1.24	23d	1	1.15mi
1037 Detroit St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	1d	1	1.19mi
2319 Almeda St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,078	$0.90	1d	1	1.20mi
5428 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	23d	1	1.22mi
1021 Woodstock Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,495	$1.48	23d	1	1.26mi
1021 Woodstock Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,495	$1.48	7d	1	1.26mi
5217 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	7d	1	1.28mi
2169 W 14th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	972	$1,200	$1.23	3d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $159,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-02-27
    price $169,900
13. 2026-02-26
    listed $140,000 Active
14. 1987-05-01
    soldstatus $23,700
15. 1983-09-16
    soldstatus $24,000
16. 1983-06-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$472/yr (+$39/mo · 55.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$374
• After-tax cash flow: $1,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,927
• Household income: $34,953
• Rent vs Own: 50.2% rent · 49.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 882.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Current HPI: 282.2981
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+749.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $169,900 realMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $140,000 realMLS
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,700 Public Records
• 1983-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +26.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.