2629 Cascade Dr · Estelle, LA 70072

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1978 7,296 sqft lot Est $230k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is ready for its next chapter. Featuring two distinct living spaces, you are greeted by a welcoming front living room upon entry, plus a second family room in the back that flows seamlessly into the kitchen. The kitchen is bathed in natural light, thanks to an abundance of windows. Designed with a desirable split floor plan, the primary suite features a generous walk-in closet and sits privately off the main living area, while three additional bedrooms and a full bath are tucked down the hallway. Enjoy incredible peace of mind with major mechanical updates already done: a brand-new HVAC and water heater (1 year old) and a solid roof (10 years old). With great bones and solid systems, this 1978 gem is a fantastic opportunity--bring your favorite paint colors and flooring ideas to easily transform this house into your dream home!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Split floor plan
• Second family room

Tags

• TWO DISTINCT LIVING SPACES
• WELCOMING FRONT LIVING ROOM
• SECOND FAMILY ROOM
• ABUNDANCE OF WINDOWS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (one space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Brick and HardiPlank-type exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Average condition
• Construction: Built with brick and HardiPlank-type materials
• Exterior features: Fence; Outside city limits; Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions: 76 x 97 x 61 x 95

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 5.6% in Estelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 298 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,068/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 1807% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $170k implies a 310% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.19%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2625 Misty Meadows Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,520 (-1%)	2mo	$215,000	$141	94
2529 Misty Meadows Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (+7%)	6mo	$247,000	$150	72
2820 Pritchard Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+2%)	4mo	$159,900	$103	68
2729 Blanche St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,494 (-3%)	2mo	$244,000	$163	68
2708 Pritchard Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,466 (-5%)	2mo	$266,000	$181	67
2700 Dolores Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	2mo	$207,000	$148	66
3829 Alexander Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	2mo	$245,000	$153	58
2930 Laurie Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,641 (+7%)	6mo	$245,000	$149	55
2401 Taffy Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	5mo	$95,000	$65	54
2516 Arizona Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (+13%)	6mo	$173,000	$100	50
2824 Virginia Lee Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-12%)	3mo	$215,000	$159	48
2404 Taffy Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (-5%)	8mo	$228,000	$157	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $94
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $25,116
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70072

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $593	-5% $544	+0% $496	+5% $448	+10% $400
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $415	+0% $496	+5% $578	+10% $660
Rate	-1.0pp $582	-0.5pp $540	base $496	+0.5pp $452	+1.0pp $407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2417 Highland Meadows Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	45d	1	0.22mi
2544 Jeanne St Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1158	$2,300	$1.99	25d	1	0.32mi
2425 Ramsey Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	3d	1	0.55mi
2748 Erin Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,850	$1.27	25d	1	0.65mi
116 Sunrise Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	1.5	1225	$1,750	$1.43	45d	1	0.77mi
2704 Sieglinde Ct Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,850	$1.65	25d	1	0.89mi
2612 Susie Ct Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,200	$1.19	21d	1	1.11mi
5913 S Oak Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	25d	1	1.15mi
4613 Ames Blvd Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,350	$1.61	45d	1	1.21mi
5300 Alpaca Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	15d	1	1.22mi
2632 Dove Ave Unit NA Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,427
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$822
• After-tax cash flow: $5,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $48,421
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #44 of 98 in LA

Livability — Estelle

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estelle, LA
• County: Jefferson Parish · 426,999 people
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 55,693
• Household income: $54,885
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1807.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 451,696 people
• By 2030: 455,451 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 458,308 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 461,031 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 476,351 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 499,377 · +10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+12.9) · D 42.5% · R 55.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.6pp toward D · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.87%
• Current HPI: 161.7477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+309.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $170,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-06 Listed $170,000 GSREIN
• 1981-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,303 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.