14 Sylvester Rd · East Shoreham, NY 11792

$649,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,373 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1974 0.69 ac lot Est $847k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique Contemporary Home situated on a Private . 69 acres in a Wonderful Neighborhood in "The Hills of Wading River" The Home Boasts: an Open Floor Plan with 2,373 sq ft of living space. Large Living Room with Cathedral Ceilings. Large Dining room for Family gatherings with French Doors leading out to Trex Deck. Hardwood Flooring Throughout. Kitchen with 3 Ovens, Terra Cotta Flooring and a Pantry. Huge Open Master Bedroom with Cathedral Ceilings, 2 Skylights, 3 Closets and a Loft. Master Bath with Tub and Stand up Shower and Skylight. The Bottom Floor has 2 Bedrooms and a Jack and Jill Bathroom with Updated Tile Flooring. Walk out Attic over Car Port. Mostly Andersen Windows throu

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Pantry
• Open floor plan

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TREX DECK
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• KITCHEN WITH 3 OVENS
• PANTRY
• 2 SKYLIGHTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-space carport; Driveway
• Utilities: PSEG electric service; Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Tri-level; Entry level varies with tri-level design
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Mailbox; Back yard; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Tri-level layout with bedrooms on multiple levels
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor full bath; Cathedral ceilings; Formal dining room; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Washer/dryer hookup; Insulated windows; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• Recommended offer: $640k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in East Shoreham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#724 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shoreham-Wading River Central School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #36 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Miller Avenue School (427 students, 0% FRL); Albert G Prodell Middle School (math 62% / reading 87%, grade A, #61 of 729 statewide, top 9%, 456 students, 0% FRL); Shoreham-Wading River High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 708 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $650k implies a 294% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $640,240 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $847,161
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Frost Ln	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,300 (-3%)	9mo	$820,000	$357	72
1231 Wading River Manorville Rd	0.39mi	3/2.5	2,279 (-4%)	7mo	$890,000	$391	69
3 Thomas Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (-12%)	11mo	$815,000	$388	55
6295 N Country Rd	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,570 (+8%)	6mo	$800,000	$311	54
9 Deerfield Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0	2,468 (+4%)	8mo	$930,000	$377	53
19 Emerald Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	2,519 (+6%)	11mo	$863,000	$343	53
15 Hermitage St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,548 (+7%)	8mo	$1,150,000	$451	50
43 Hill St	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,674 (+13%)	6mo	$765,818	$286	47
6320 N Country Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,617 (+10%)	10mo	$945,000	$361	46
3 Pheasant Run	0.50mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,620 (+10%)	6mo	$845,000	$323	45
52 Laurel Ct	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,489 (+5%)	6mo	$775,000	$311	44
10 Long Bow	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,500 (+5%)	18mo	$869,000	$348	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-78,978
• Equity at exit: $96,916

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-34,092
• Equity at exit: $56,199

Cash invested: $181,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11792

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$1,093 /mo · $13,121/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,378
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,042

Max offer price $649,990

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $777	-5% $593	+0% $409	+5% $225	+10% $41
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $150	+0% $409	+5% $669	+10% $928
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $575	base $409	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,498
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Overhill Rd Wading River, NY	3.0	2.5	1600	$7,000	$4.38	0d	1	0.28mi
184 Creek Rd Unit 1510783P Wading River, NY	3.0	2.0	1722	$5,010	$2.91	25d	1	1.21mi
212 Creek Rd Unit 1510784P Wading River, NY	4.0	3.0	1797	$6,360	$3.54	23d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $649,990 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $649,990 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,990 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,990 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $649,990 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $749,990 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $749,990 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $749,990 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $749,990 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $749,990 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $749,990 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $779,990 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $779,990 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $779,990 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $779,990 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $779,990 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $779,990 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $779,990 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-27
    listed $779,990 Active
20. 1997-07-17
    soldstatus $165,000
21. 1992-10-16
    soldstatus $137,500
22. 1992-06-23
    soldstatus $210,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,121 · $1,093/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,121 · $1,093/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$13,121
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,297
• − Management: −$6,297
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$5,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $6,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shoreham-Wading River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626840
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $115,782
• Composite: 74.37/100
• National rank: #160
• State rank: #36 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Shoreham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #724
• US rank: #13829

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Shoreham, NY
• City population: 6,348
• Population (ZIP): 8,562

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.79%
• Current HPI: 344.4308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+270.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $779,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 1992-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 1992-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $210,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,121 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.