5527 N Route 48 · Decatur, IL 62526

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · Other public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1935 0.97 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living with room to breathe on nearly an acre, located on Decatur’s far northeast side in the Argenta-Oreana School District. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers the peace and privacy of a rural setting while still being conveniently close to town. The home features a new furnace installed in 2023 and a roof replaced within the last five years, providing buyers with confidence in the major mechanicals. The single-level layout offers comfortable living with potential to personalize or expand over time. The spacious lot provides endless possibilities for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or additional outbuildings. If you’ve been looking for an affordable home with country fee

Key facts

• New furnace
• Gardening
• Spacious lot

Tags

• NEW FURNACE
• REPLACED ROOF
• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT
• GARDENING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Argenta-Oreana CUSD 1 (rural): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #436 of 620 in IL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.51%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $14,402
• Equity at exit: $11,991

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $43,936
• Equity at exit: $9,650

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62526

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,802/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   price $65,000
3. 2025-12-31
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,802
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$841
• After-tax cash flow: $3,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argenta-Oreana CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1703990
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,853
• Composite: 16.97/100
• National rank: #9133
• State rank: #436 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,483
• Household income: $49,062
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1041.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 22% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 182.871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $65,000 CIBR
• 2025-12-31 Listed $75,000 CIBR

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,802 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.