20172 Shadow Island Dr · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$275,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Manufactured · 276 Days on market

Built 1990 4,399 sqft lot Est $212k · 30% over ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WELCOME HOME! Private corner lot with fantastic view. Recently painted exterior and interior. Newer roof. Upgraded plank laminate and carpet flooring throughout/recessed lighting/ceiling fans in both bedrooms and living room. Remodeled Kitchen, large center island with granite, ample cabinet space and newer appliances. Primary bedroom with slider to outside patio. Both bathrooms have been upgraded with granite counters and newer vanities - primary bath with deep soaking tub and separate shower. Living room with cozy fireplace and additional slider to the back yard. Open flowing floorplan. Separate indoor laundry room. Direct access to 2 car garage. Nice size backyard with a view of the va

Key facts

• 4,399 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller provided lot and living area information
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $1,778
• HOA & community: Land lease community (land lease amount listed)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District / public water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Planned development; Single-story; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Association pool; Has a view; Street lighting in the community

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry at main level; All bedrooms on the ground floor; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #247	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	8mo	$155,000	$124	66
20073 Edgewater Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+12%)	5mo	$322,000	$217	65
20042 Canyon View Dr #74	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+12%)	4mo	$275,000	$186	64
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #342	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+1%)	8mo	$210,000	$156	64
20401 Soledad Cyn #355	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-6%)	1mo	$224,000	$179	62
20401 Soledad Cyn	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+9%)	4mo	$230,000	$160	58
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #690	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+1%)	16mo	$240,400	$179	57
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd Spc 543	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+9%)	4mo	$230,000	$160	54
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #126	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (-8%)	8mo	$130,000	$106	53
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #114	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-11%)	4mo	$184,000	$156	51
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #451	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-11%)	7mo	$157,000	$134	48
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #203	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+6%)	19mo	$235,000	$167	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-12,333
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $19,955
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $759	-5% $664	+0% $569	+5% $474	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $322	-5% $445	+0% $569	+5% $692	+10% $816
Rate	-1.0pp $707	-0.5pp $639	base $569	+0.5pp $497	+1.0pp $425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26956 Flo Ln #338 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,875	$2.70	2d	1	0.59mi
26955 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1007	$2,850	$2.83	2d	1	0.63mi
26941 Rainbow Glen Dr #751 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,900	$3.20	2d	1	0.64mi
26921 Flo Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,950	$2.66	2d	1	0.66mi
26901 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1001	$2,950	$2.95	2d	1	0.70mi
26842 Claudette St #204 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	964	$2,650	$2.75	2d	1	0.71mi
20345 Rue Crevier Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,700	$2.98	2d	1	0.72mi
28131 Florence Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$4,300	$2.84	2d	1	0.77mi
26741 Isabella Pkwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,989	$3.52	2d	3	0.82mi
26844 Albion Way Unit 1 Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1817	$3,995	$2.20	13d	1	0.98mi
27301 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	18d	2	1.11mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$2,925	$2.78	25d	2	1.16mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,700	$2.70	2d	1	1.17mi
19028 Drycliff St Unit C Canyon Country, CA	3.0	1.5	982	$3,600	$3.67	3d	1	1.19mi
28427 Santa Rosa Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	2d	1	1.22mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	8d	1	1.24mi
28371 Mirabelle Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,400	$1.99	7d	1	1.24mi
28366 Casselman Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,650	$2.13	2d	1	1.28mi
19341 Opal Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1850	$3,850	$2.08	19d	1	1.33mi
28136 Bakerton Ave Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	8d	1	1.35mi
27077 Hidaway Ave Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $275,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $280,000
17. 2026-03-27
    price $285,000
18. 2026-02-28
    price $295,000
19. 2026-02-14
    price $300,000
20. 2025-12-06
    status Active
21. 2025-12-06
    price $309,000
22. 2025-09-17
    listed $315,000 Active
23. 2025-09-03
    historical $315,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,000
• − Management: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $2,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$624
• After-tax cash flow: $6,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $280,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $300,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $309,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $315,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-03 Coming Soon $315,000 CRMLS