1452 Kaylor Rd · Mountain Grove, MO 65711

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,422 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2007 Poor condition 13 ac lot $52/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A STOCKED pond, level to gently rolling ground, and 2 wells define this 12.56 acre m/l property located right outside of Mountain Grove, Mo. !The property is being sold 'AS IS WHERE IS'. The home located on the property is a 2017 modular home. It has been flooded and has a lot of mold in it. It will presumably need to be taken off of the property. The well towards the front of the property needs a new pump. The one towards the back is functional. You will find plenty of room for your animals and potential building spots here! Seller is ready to look at qualified offers! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 12.56 acre property
• Septic
• Functional well

Tags

• LEVEL TO GENTLY ROLLING GROUND
• 2 WELLS
• SEPTIC
• 12.56 ACRE PROPERTY
• FUNCTIONAL WELL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank sewage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Block foundation; Metal roof; Built area approximately 2,422 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: Pond on the property; Barbed wire fencing; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pond view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.9% in Mountain Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#251 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mountain Grove R-III (town): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #73 of 324 in MO (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Grove Elem. (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C-, #268 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 688 students, 58% FRL); Mountain Grove Middle (math 47% / reading 48%, grade C-, #88 of 391 statewide, top 24%, 476 students, 60% FRL); Mountain Grove High (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 444 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.20%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,407
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -68.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,581
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,298
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65711

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $195	+0% $152	+5% $108	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $101	+0% $152	+5% $202	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $183	base $152	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $150,000 Active 605-char remark
2. 2016-11-08
   listed $188,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $1,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in a state of disrepair and requires extensive repairs and maintenance. The roof, interior walls, HVAC system, and landscaping are in poor condition and need immediate attention. The property has potential for significant value increase with proper renovations.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be damaged and in need of replacement
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint appear to be in poor condition
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The HVAC system appears to be non-functional
• Major landscaping — The property is overgrown with weeds and debris

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained property will attract more buyers and renters
• Both HVAC system replacement — A functional HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both roof replacement — A new roof will protect the home from weather damage and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be damaged and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The interior walls and paint appear to be in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The HVAC system appears to be non-functional	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The property is overgrown with weeds and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained property will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A functional HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both roof replacement — A new roof will protect the home from weather damage and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Grove R-III
• NCES district ID: 2921510
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $30,918
• Composite: 39.72/100
• National rank: #3899
• State rank: #73 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mountain Grove

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #12218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,690

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,699 people
• By 2030: 15,751 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 13,894 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 12,086 · -27.6%
• By 2075: 8,301 · -50.3%
• By 2100: 5,110 · -69.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.7) · D 11.8% · R 87.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -75.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.7 2020: R+71.9 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+48.7 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.74%
• Current HPI: 218.8559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-33.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $125,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-11 Listed $150,000 SOMO
• 2016-11-08 Listed $188,500 SOMO