419 Joyce St · Arlington, TX 76010

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1951 4,487 sqft lot $167/sqft · 21% below area Est $239k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home for a first time home owner, this house is move in ready in the heart of Arlington. This house is in great shape with a new metal roof, original wood floors, tile and a large back yard. The house was leveled recently and the AC is about 5 years old. There is a tenant occupying the property currently paying $1250 per month and is on a month to month basis. Open house has been canceled

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Metal roof
• Expansive green lawn

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• EXPANSIVE GREEN LAWN
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• EXPOSED WOOD BEAM CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA; Listing is Active Contingent / Active Under Contract
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Asphalt access; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1951
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; Lot under 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Commercial-grade vent; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (1st level) — approx. 13 x 11; Bedroom (1st level) — approx. 9 x 11; Bedroom (1st level) — approx. 9 x 10
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; Primary bathroom (1st level) — approx. 9 x 5
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Seven total rooms; One living area; One dining area; One level

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $189,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$238,526) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Crow Leadership Academy (math 16% / reading 15%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 542 students, 94% FRL); Carter J H (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 910 students, 91% FRL); Sam Houston H S (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 3,370 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 60% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,113 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,526
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -20.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Joyce St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,132 (0%)	1mo	$189,000	$167	95
1506 Grace St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,132 (0%)	4mo	$219,000	$193	82
905 Skylark Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-3%)	0mo	$236,000	$215	71
1817 Newton St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+1%)	1mo	$266,999	$233	64
1311 Coke Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,251 (+10%)	2mo	$269,900	$216	63
1312 Raines St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,168 (+3%)	3mo	$190,000	$163	63
345 Claudia St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+15%)	2mo	$279,000	$215	62
813 Dugan St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-6%)	2mo	$240,000	$225	59
1917 Ida St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,191 (+5%)	1mo	$165,000	$139	56
615 Circle Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+6%)	4mo	$285,000	$238	54
1733 Ida St	0.45mi	3/1.0	984 (-13%)	2mo	$220,000	$224	52
1412 Randolph St	0.69mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,102 (-3%)	3mo	$199,990	$181	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-41,558
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-62,751
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76010

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,338/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,812

Max offer price $172,142

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-42	+0% $-95	+5% $-149	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-162	+0% $-95	+5% $-29	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-47	base $-95	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 Broadmoor Ave Unit A Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,600	$1.39	45d	1	0.38mi
1206 Belvedere Dr Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	26d	1	0.50mi
1104 Belvedere Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	1.5	1339	$1,975	$1.47	45d	1	0.57mi
1950 Melrose St Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,995	$1.66	9d	1	0.66mi
2009 Cloverdale St Arlington, TX	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,800	$1.45	26d	1	0.82mi
408 E 2nd St Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	764	$1,350	$1.77	26d	1	0.83mi
1814 Martin Luther Dr Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	887	$1,700	$1.92	45d	1	0.83mi
1505 Arbor Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,800	$1.57	20d	1	0.85mi
971 E Sanford St Arlington, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$1,416	$1.70	5d	19	0.85mi
320 E 4th St Unit 204 Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	989	$1,149	$1.16	45d	1	0.86mi
313 Rose St Unit 317-B Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,095	$1.24	16d	1	0.90mi
404 Truman St Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1334	$1,820	$1.36	5d	1	0.90mi
404 Truman St Unit A Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1334	$1,845	$1.38	5d	1	0.91mi
2113 Cloverdale St Arlington, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.92mi
808 E Sanford St Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,409	$1.22	5d	1	0.92mi
213 Hosack St Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	771	$1,200	$1.56	45d	1	0.92mi
307 Rose St Unit 311-C Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,095	$1.24	45d	1	0.93mi
307 Rose St Unit 307-D Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,095	$1.24	16d	1	0.93mi
208 Hosack St Unit B Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	45d	1	0.96mi
204 Hosack St Apt B Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	45d	1	0.97mi
1001 S Center St Apt 2215 Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	821	$2,070	$2.52	3d	1	1.02mi
1001 S Center St Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	825	$2,405	$2.91	8d	15	1.03mi
1001 S Center St Unit 1224 Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	830	$2,040	$2.46	13d	1	1.03mi
805 S Center St Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	860	$1,203	$1.40	45d	1	1.03mi
109 Ray St Unit B Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$1,595	$2.11	45d	1	1.04mi
101 S Center St Unit 447 Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,967	$2.69	5d	1	1.06mi
101 S Center St Unit 533 Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$3,001	$2.72	22d	1	1.06mi
101 S Center St Unit 125 Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	1101	$3,117	$2.83	0d	1	1.06mi
101 S Center St Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$2,947	$2.91	22d	15	1.06mi
600 N East St Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$1,550	$1.70	45d	1	1.17mi
600 N East St Unit B Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	23d	1	1.17mi
215 Roberts Cir Unit D Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$1,235	$1.62	45d	1	1.17mi
1703 Monaco Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$5,600	$3.75	7d	1	1.18mi
1905 Kent Dr Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$1,100	$1.25	4d	1	1.21mi
1905 Kent Dr Apt B Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$1,100	$1.25	3d	1	1.21mi
1109 E Inwood Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,800	$1.55	8d	1	1.21mi
117 E Sanford St Unit B Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	816	$1,295	$1.59	5d	1	1.24mi
805 Biggs Ter Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	3d	1	1.24mi
611 Slaughter St Arlington, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,034	$2.62	0d	14	1.27mi
308 S West St Arlington, TX	2.0	1.0	781	$1,050	$1.34	12d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Contingent 894-char remark
2. 2026-05-10
   price $189,000 894-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   price $190,000 894-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   price $200,000 894-char remark
5. 2026-04-20
   listed $210,000 Active 894-char remark
6. 2021-04-27
   soldstatus
7. 2021-04-26
   soldstatus Sold 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Great home for a first time home owner, this house is move in ready in the heart of Arlington. This house is in great shape with a new metal roof, original wood floors, tile and a large back yard. The house was leveled recently and the AC is about 5 years old. There is a tenant occupying the property currently paying $1250 per month and is on a month to month basis. Open house has been canceled

8. 2021-04-06
   status Pending 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Great home for a first time home owner, this house is move in ready in the heart of Arlington. This house is in great shape with a new metal roof, original wood floors, tile and a large back yard. The house was leveled recently and the AC is about 5 years old. There is a tenant occupying the property currently paying $1250 per month and is on a month to month basis. Open house has been canceled

9. 2021-03-26
   historical Active Option Contract 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Great home for a first time home owner, this house is move in ready in the heart of Arlington. This house is in great shape with a new metal roof, original wood floors, tile and a large back yard. The house was leveled recently and the AC is about 5 years old. There is a tenant occupying the property currently paying $1250 per month and is on a month to month basis. Open house has been canceled

10. 2021-03-25
    listed $149,900 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Great home for a first time home owner, this house is move in ready in the heart of Arlington. This house is in great shape with a new metal roof, original wood floors, tile and a large back yard. The house was leveled recently and the AC is about 5 years old. There is a tenant occupying the property currently paying $1250 per month and is on a month to month basis. Open house has been canceled

11. 2006-01-23
    soldstatus
12. 1986-11-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,338 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,338 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$4,338
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,037
• After-tax cash flow: $-108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808700
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,873
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7458
• State rank: #629 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #2697

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 366,588
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 54,978
• Household income: $45,466
• Rent vs Own: 68.7% rent · 31.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4206.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 35% Black 17% White 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 52% Vietnamese 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.05%
• Current HPI: 365.0878
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2021-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-04-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-03-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-03-25 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2006-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,338 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.