1151D Argyll Cir · Leisure Village East, NJ 08701

$114,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 663 sqft · Condo public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1972 $173/sqft · 31% below area Est $167k · 31% under $350/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable 55+ community of Leisure Village East, this Eton model presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. Offering a spacious layout and a well-maintained original design, the home is ready for you to add your final upgrades and personal touches. Recent improvements include a partially renovated kitchen featuring new cabinetry, stove, and backsplash--ready for you to complete with your preferred appliance package. Some pictures have been virtually staged. Enjoy all the benefits of this vibrant community, ideally situated near shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore. Move right in and begin enjoying the lifestyle Leisure Village East is known for.

Key facts

• Near dining
• Near shopping
• New cabinetry

Tags

• ETON MODEL
• PARTIALLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETRY
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR JERSEY SHORE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee ($350) for Leisure Village East; HOA amenities include pool and clubhouse; HOA fee covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Eton; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Property is attached

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Stove included; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.5% in Leisure Village East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#518 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $115k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.20%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,404
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -31.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $721
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $26,115
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,383

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	24d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $114,900 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-05-01
   listed $114,900 Active 695-char remark
8. 2010-07-20
   soldstatus $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,110 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,985 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$876/yr (+$73/mo · 78.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $2,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$507
• After-tax cash flow: $3,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village East

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #22166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village East, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+130.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $114,900 MOMLS
• 2010-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,110 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.