1246 31st St NW · Inwood, FL 33881

$165,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1961 8,751 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

Key facts

• No hoa fees
• Convenient location
• Covered parking area

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• WORKSHOP WITH NEW ROOF
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• NO HOA FEES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Built-up roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1 structure (per building area)
• Exterior features: Workshop; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Electric water heater; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#594 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inwood Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 298 students, 70% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,969 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,649
• Equity at exit: $24,736

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,240
• Equity at exit: $14,344

Cash invested: $46,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,272

Max offer price $165,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $341	-5% $294	+0% $247	+5% $200	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $184	+0% $247	+5% $309	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $289	base $247	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,475
• Closing costs: $4,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1254 34th St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,690	$1.53	3d	1	0.16mi
3135 Woodhill Rd Unit 3205 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	24d	1	0.23mi
3135 Woodhill Rd Unit 3127 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	24d	1	0.23mi
611 34th St NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	24d	1	0.51mi
3823 Avenue J NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,696	$1.62	3d	1	0.60mi
5004 Dream Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,899	$2.21	15d	76	0.68mi
5004 Dream Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,899	$2.21	3d	71	0.68mi
350 24th St NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	660	$1,549	$2.35	3d	13	0.80mi
2016 Avenue G NW Unit 2016 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,125	$1.35	15d	1	0.81mi
333 Lake Howard Dr NW Unit 312C Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,425	$1.38	24d	1	0.94mi
2366 Lake Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1003	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	0.95mi
265 25th St SW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	24d	1	1.20mi
309 Vaniman Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1089	$1,610	$1.48	24d	1	1.27mi
506 Holt Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,675	$1.62	3d	1	1.33mi
912 Lake Jessie Dr Unit A Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	3d	1	1.35mi
Deena Way Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	840	$1,225	$1.46	24d	1	1.43mi
2000 15th Ct NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,395	$1.86	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $165,900
3. 2026-03-13
   price $169,900
4. 2026-02-24
   price $174,900
5. 2026-02-05
   listed $179,900 Active
6. 2025-11-13
   listed $198,900 Active
7. 2021-11-30
   soldstatus $145,000
8. 2021-11-23
   soldstatus $145,000 Closed 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

9. 2021-10-25
   status Pending 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

10. 2021-10-23
    status Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

11. 2021-10-18
    status Pending 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

12. 2021-10-15
    price $145,000 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

13. 2021-10-11
    status Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

14. 2021-09-29
    status Pending 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

15. 2021-09-24
    listed $149,000 Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Buyer's financing fell thru. Their loss can be your good fortune! Recently renovated 2 bed / 1 bath located in Winter Haven, FL! Home features a large open kitchen, newer appliances, newer window unit AC units, attached 1 car carport, attached utility room and detached storage room/workshop. Firepit in the back yard, along with above ground pool and large fenced area for dogs/pets.

16. 2019-12-02
    soldstatus $88,000
17. 2019-11-22
    soldstatus $88,000 Sold
18. 2019-10-23
    status Pending
19. 2019-10-22
    listed $85,000 Active
20. 2005-06-24
    soldstatus $54,000
21. 2005-06-16
    soldstatus $54,000
22. 2005-04-14
    listed $54,900
23. 2004-07-08
    soldstatus $35,000
24. 2004-06-15
    soldstatus $35,000
25. 2004-05-12
    historical
26. 2004-02-19
    listed $43,500
27. 1973-08-01
    soldstatus $15,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,377 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$592/yr (+$49/mo · 75.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,293
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$4,826
• Taxable income: $233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$56
• After-tax cash flow: $2,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Inwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #11391

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Inwood, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+977.3% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $165,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $198,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-23 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-24 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-22 Sold (MLS) $88,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-22 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-16 Sold (MLS) $54,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-14 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-15 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-19 Listed $43,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1973-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.